棉价延续震荡，纸浆偏弱整理

Report Industry Investment Rating - All investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are neutral [3][6][9] Core Viewpoints - The cotton market is affected by factors such as global supply - demand adjustments, domestic supply expectations, and downstream demand. The sugar market is influenced by Brazilian production estimates and domestic supply pressure. The pulp market faces supply and demand challenges with high inventory and weak demand [2][5][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Key Data - Yesterday, the closing price of cotton 2601 contract was 14,055 yuan/ton, a change of - 45 yuan/ton (- 0.32%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,080 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. In July 2025, the export volume of cotton products was 649,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.83% and a month - on - month increase of 3.33% [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, USDA's reduction in global cotton production and ending stocks made the supply - demand pattern shift from loose to tight, but the market doubts the tight pattern. Domestically, the supply is expected to be tight in the short - term, but downstream demand is weak. In the medium - term, new cotton production is expected to increase [2] Strategy - A neutral strategy is recommended. The low inventory and upcoming textile peak season support cotton prices, but policy regulation may limit the upside [3] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Yesterday, the closing price of sugar 2601 contract was 5,676 yuan/ton, a change of + 15 yuan/ton (+ 0.26%) from the previous day. In July, the average sugarcane yield in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased by 5.6% year - on - year [4] Market Analysis - The Brazilian sugar production data shows a decline in some aspects but a high sugar - making ratio. Domestic sugar sales have slowed, and imported sugar pressure is increasing [5][6] Strategy - A neutral strategy is recommended. In the short - term, sugar prices will likely oscillate due to supply pressure, but a potential tail - end rise may occur in the fourth quarter [6] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Yesterday, the closing price of pulp 2511 contract was 5,136 yuan/ton, a change of - 42 yuan/ton (- 0.81%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean silver star softwood pulp in Shandong decreased by 40 yuan/ton [6] Market Analysis - Supply pressure exists in the second half of the year with high port inventories. Demand is weak both globally and domestically, and the improvement of terminal demand is expected to be limited [8] Strategy - A neutral strategy is recommended. The pulp market fundamentals have not improved significantly, and short - term prices are expected to continue to oscillate at a low level [9]