化工日报：韩国石化业或削减产能，关注EG成本端影响-20250821

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral. [4] Core Viewpoints - EG futures and spot prices rose, with the main EG contract closing at 4,477 yuan/ton (+93 yuan/ton, +2.12% compared to the previous trading day), and the EG spot price in the East China market at 4,502 yuan/ton (+47 yuan/ton, +1.05% compared to the previous trading day). The EG spot basis in East China was 90 yuan/ton (down 3 yuan/ton month-on-month). [2] - Concerns about the restructuring of the South Korean petrochemical industry led to a sharp rise in the chemical sector on Wednesday afternoon. Most of South Korea's MEG production capacity has been shut down, with only four units in operation, totaling around 550,000 tons of ethylene glycol production capacity. The impact on EG is mainly on the cost side of ethylene prices. [2] - The production profit of ethylene - made EG was -$49/ton (up $4/ton month - on - month), and that of coal - made syngas - made EG was -116 yuan/ton (up 7 yuan/ton month - on - month). [2] - MEG inventory data from different sources showed different trends. According to CCF, the MEG inventory at the main ports in East China was 547,000 tons (down 6,000 tons month - on - month), while according to Longzhong, it was 535,000 tons (up 49,000 tons month - on - month). [3] - In terms of overall fundamentals, domestic EG supply is expected to see the total EG operating rate rise above 70%, and overseas imports are expected to rebound to around 650,000 tons after August. The off - season for demand is over, and polyester load is expected to stabilize and rise slightly. The balance sheet for August - September shows a slight inventory build - up, with both supply and demand increasing. [3] Summaries by Related Catalogs Price and Basis - The closing price of the main EG contract was 4,477 yuan/ton, and the EG spot price in the East China market was 4,502 yuan/ton. The EG spot basis in East China was 90 yuan/ton. [2] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - made EG was -$49/ton, and that of coal - made syngas - made EG was -116 yuan/ton. The domestic total EG operating rate is expected to rise above 70%, and the syngas - made EG load has returned to a high level. [2][3] International Price Difference - No specific data on international price differences were provided in the summary text. Only the figure "Figure 9: Ethylene glycol international price difference: US FOB - China CFR" was mentioned. [21] Downstream Production, Sales and Operating Rate - No specific data on downstream production, sales and operating rates were provided in the summary text. Only relevant figures were mentioned, such as long - filament sales, short - fiber sales, polyester load, etc. [22][24] Inventory Data - According to CCF, the MEG inventory at the main ports in East China was 547,000 tons (down 6,000 tons month - on - month), and according to Longzhong, it was 535,000 tons (up 49,000 tons month - on - month). Last week, the total actual arrivals at the main ports were 141,000 tons, and this week, the planned arrivals at the main ports in East China are 54,000 tons, with 43,000 tons at the secondary ports. [3]