尿素日报：尿素厂库累积，出口仍有扰动-20250821

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: After the export window period, conduct a reverse spread for the 01 - 05 contract when the price is high; Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Recent market export expectations have boosted the urea futures to fluctuate strongly, and the spot price has been adjusted upwards, but the new order trading volume is average. Urea exports in July were 570,000 tons, with a large export space compared to the previously recognized export quota. The downstream agricultural demand is in the off - season, and the industrial demand is weak. The urea production is at a high level, and the upstream inventory is still relatively high year - on - year. Future urea supply and demand may remain loose. The profit of coal - based urea is acceptable, and the cost support is average. The Indian tender will boost the international urea market, and the export dynamics need continuous attention [2] Summary by Directory Urea Basis Structure - The figures include Shandong urea small - particle market price, Henan urea small - particle market price, Shandong main - continuous basis, Henan main - continuous basis, urea main continuous contract price, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, and 9 - 1 spread, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [7][8][9] Urea Production - The figures include urea weekly production and urea plant maintenance loss volume, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [16] Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - The figures include production cost, spot production profit, disk production profit, national capacity utilization rate, coal - based capacity utilization rate, and gas - based capacity utilization rate, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [16][18][20] Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - The figures include urea small - particle FOB in the Baltic Sea, urea large - particle CFR in Southeast Asia, urea small - particle FOB in China, urea large - particle CFR in China, price differences, urea export profit, and disk export profit, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [21][23][27] Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - The figures include compound fertilizer operating rate, melamine operating rate, and pending order days, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [39][40][41] Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The figures include upstream in - factory inventory, port inventory, raw material inventory days of downstream urea manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, main contract holding volume, and main contract trading volume, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [44][47][49]