有色商品日报-20250821

Research Views Copper - Overnight copper prices fluctuated strongly, with the domestic spot import window remaining open. The Fed's July meeting minutes showed internal differences, and the market is awaiting Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole "Global Central Bank Annual Meeting" for signals on the Fed's future interest rate cuts. Domestically, measures are being taken to stabilize the real estate market. LME and Comex inventories increased, while SHFE and BC copper inventories decreased. Seasonal demand is expected to pick up, and the market is in a balanced state awaiting external factors [1]. Aluminum - Alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all fluctuated strongly. Alumina's fundamental support weakened, but short - term deep declines are limited. As the "Golden September" peak season approaches, the pressure on the market may ease. Aluminum ingot casting volume increased, and some terminal sectors are stocking up in advance, resulting in an unsmooth inventory build - up. The electrolytic aluminum market is in a time - for - space mode [1][2]. Nickel - LME nickel fell 0.1%, while Shanghai nickel rose 0.15%. LME inventory increased, and domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased. Nickel ore premiums declined slightly, and stainless steel raw material prices were divided. The overall fundamentals changed little, and the market is in a volatile state [2]. Daily Data Monitoring Copper - The price of flat - water copper decreased by 340 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 15 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased by 1200 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 275 tons. The total weekly inventory increased by 4428 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 0.1 million tons [3]. Lead - The average price of 1 lead decreased by 100 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 10 yuan/ton. LME inventory decreased by 1850 tons, and SHFE inventory increased by 2510 tons [3]. Aluminum - The Wuxi and Nanhai aluminum prices decreased, and the spot premium increased by 20 yuan/ton. LME inventory remained unchanged, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 2529 tons. The weekly total inventory increased by 7039 tons, and the alumina social inventory increased by 0.4 million tons [4]. Nickel - The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 725 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased by 18 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 282 tons. The weekly nickel inventory increased by 768 tons, and the social inventory increased by 1319 tons [4]. Zinc - The主力 settlement price decreased by 0.2%. LME inventory decreased by 950 tons, and the weekly social inventory increased by 0.49 million tons [5]. Tin - The主力 settlement price increased by 0.7%. SHFE inventory decreased by 13 tons, and LME inventory increased by 85 tons [5]. Chart Analysis Spot Premium - Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][9][13]. SHFE Near - Far Month Spread - Charts display the historical trends of the near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [14][16][18]. LME Inventory - Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [20][22][24]. SHFE Inventory - Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [27][29][31]. Social Inventory - Charts illustrate the historical trends of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel from 2019 - 2025 [33][35][37]. Smelting Profit - Charts show the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [40][42][44]. Team Introduction - The research team consists of Zhan Dapeng (Director of Non - ferrous Research at Everbright Futures Research Institute), Wang Heng (Non - ferrous researcher focusing on aluminum and silicon), and Zhu Xi (Non - ferrous researcher focusing on lithium and nickel) [47][48].