光大期货软商品日报-20250821

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For cotton, the ICE U.S. cotton dropped 0.04% to 67.53 cents per pound, and CF601 decreased 0.5% to 14,055 yuan per ton. The position of the main contract decreased by 10,082 lots to 478,500 lots. The cotton arrival price in Xinjiang remained flat at 15,080 yuan per ton, and the China Cotton Price Index Grade 3128B dropped 3 yuan to 15,240 yuan per ton. Internationally, the market is waiting for the Jackson Hole Symposium results, with the U.S. dollar index and U.S. cotton prices fluctuating. Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton declined with reduced positions. The current tight commercial cotton inventory supports cotton prices, but the upcoming new - cotton harvest (a likely bumper crop) exerts upward pressure. The over - capacity of ginning mills and pre - sales of new cotton support the purchase expectations. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to remain firm and fluctuate in the short term [2]. - For sugar, in July 2025, China's imports of syrup and sugar premixes totaled 159,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 68,600 tons. Spot prices in Guangxi, Yunnan, and processing sugar mills were mostly down 10 yuan per ton. The raw sugar futures lack a clear direction, showing a range - bound trend. The domestic investment market sentiment is optimistic, with sugar spot trading improving and prices slightly rising. However, facing pressure near previous highs and the weak performance of raw sugar, Zhengzhou sugar is expected to continue with a range - bound pattern [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Research Views - Cotton: The international market is affected by macro factors, and the domestic market has a complex situation with inventory support and new - cotton supply pressure. The short - term outlook is a firm and fluctuating trend [2]. - Sugar: Import volume decreased, spot prices adjusted downward, and the futures market is range - bound due to lack of direction in raw sugar and pressure near previous highs [2]. Day - to - day Data Monitoring - Cotton: The 9 - 1 spread was - 255 yuan, up 25 yuan; the main contract basis was 1,185 yuan, up 42 yuan. The Xinjiang spot price was 15,080 yuan (unchanged), and the national price was 15,240 yuan, down 3 yuan [3]. - Sugar: The 9 - 1 spread was 62 yuan, up 2 yuan; the main contract basis was 314 yuan, down 25 yuan [3]. Market Information - Cotton: On August 20, the cotton futures warehouse receipts decreased by 141 to 7,455, with 249 valid forecasts. The arrival prices in different regions were reported, and the yarn and short - fiber cloth load and inventory data also changed [5]. - Sugar: On August 20, the sugar spot prices in Nanning and Liuzhou decreased by 10 yuan to 5,970 yuan and 5,990 yuan respectively. The sugar futures warehouse receipts decreased by 242 to 16,244, with 1 valid forecast [5][6]. Chart Analysis - Cotton: Charts show the closing price, basis, 9 - 1 spread, 1% tariff quota internal - external spread, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts, and the China Cotton Price Index of cotton over different time periods [9][11][12][13][14][15]. - Sugar: Charts display the closing price, basis, 9 - 1 spread, and warehouse receipts and valid forecasts of sugar over different years [17][18][20].