Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings were provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Urea: On Wednesday, the urea futures price showed a weak oscillation. The closing price of the main 01 contract was 1776 yuan/ton, with a slight decline of 0.73%. The spot market rebounded significantly, with the mainstream regional market prices rising by 20 - 40 yuan/ton. The supply level of urea fluctuated at a high level, and the daily output of the industry was 19.52 tons, a decrease of 0.18 tons from the previous day. The follow - up sentiment on the demand side declined, and the spot sales - to - production ratio in the mainstream regions dropped to the 10% - 90% range. Urea enterprises continued to accumulate inventory by 6.95% this week. The domestic urea market still had weak drivers, but there were still disturbances from information such as the third export quota. It was expected that the urea futures price would still show a weak trend, and the 09 contract had stronger support. One could pay attention to the 9 - 1 positive spread opportunity [1]. - Soda Ash: On Wednesday, the soda ash futures price dropped significantly. The closing price of the main 01 contract was 1309 yuan/ton, with a decline of 5.01%. The spot market quotation remained stable, but the traders' quotations declined following the futures. The natural soda ash plant in Inner Mongolia had fluctuating operations, and the industry's operating rate dropped to 86.96%. There was an expectation of a short - term shutdown of soda plants in Qinghai at the end of the month. The demand side had no obvious improvement, and the willingness of some mid - and downstream enterprises to stockpile raw materials was still weak after the price drop. The fundamentals of soda ash remained weak, and the market sentiment cooled rapidly. It was expected that the short - term futures price would continue the weak oscillation state [1]. - Glass: On Wednesday, the glass futures price showed a weak downward trend. The closing price of the main 01 contract was 1162 yuan/ton, with a decline of 4.36%. The spot market was still weak. The daily melting volume of glass in production remained stable at 15.96 tons. The follow - up strength on the demand side did not increase significantly. The subsequent downstream processing enterprises might be affected by environmental protection and production restrictions, which would further suppress the rigid demand for glass and the enterprise's shipment. The supply - demand contradiction of glass still existed, and there were no favorable factors in the market. It was expected that the glass futures price would continue the weak oscillation state [1]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Information - Urea - On August 20, the urea futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange were 3573, with no change from the previous trading day, and the valid forecasts were 50 [4]. - On August 20, the daily output of the urea industry was 19.52 tons, a decrease of 0.18 tons from the previous working day and an increase of 2.72 tons compared with the same period last year. The operating rate on that day was 84.33%, an increase of 8.14% compared with 76.19% in the same period last year [5]. - On August 20, the spot prices of small - particle urea in various domestic regions increased. For example, in Shandong, it was 1770 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton; in Henan, it was 1780 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton [5]. - As of August 20, the inventory of domestic urea enterprises was 102.39 tons, an increase of 6.65 tons or 6.95% from the previous week [6]. - Soda Ash and Glass - On August 20, the number of soda ash futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 10254, a decrease of 766 from the previous trading day, and the valid forecast volume was 1351. The number of glass futures warehouse receipts was 2388, a decrease of 50 from the previous trading day [8]. - On August 20, the spot prices of soda ash in different regions were provided. For example, in North China, the light soda ash was 1250 yuan/ton, and the heavy soda ash was 1350 yuan/ton [8]. - On August 20, the operating rate of the soda ash industry was 86.96%, down from 88.89% on the previous working day [9]. - On August 20, the average price of the float glass market was 1149 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the daily output of the industry was 15.96 tons, unchanged from the previous day [9]. Chart Analysis - The report includes multiple charts such as those showing the basis of urea and soda ash, the trading volume and open interest of the main contracts of urea and soda ash, the closing prices of the main contracts of urea and soda ash, the price spreads between different contracts of urea and soda ash, the spot price trends of urea and soda ash, and the price spreads between urea - methanol and glass - soda ash futures. All chart data sources are iFind and the Research Institute of Everbright Futures [11][13][16][17][19][21][22]. Research Team Introduction - The resource product research team of Everbright Futures includes Zhang Xiaojin, the research director, who focuses on the sugar industry; Zhang Linglu, an analyst responsible for futures varieties such as urea, soda ash, and glass; and Sun Chengzhen, an analyst mainly engaged in the fundamental research and data analysis of varieties such as cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys [24].
光大期货煤化工商品日报-20250821
Guang Da Qi Huo·2025-08-21 03:40