黑色商品日报-20250821

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Steel: The short - term rebar futures market is expected to operate weakly in a volatile manner due to factors such as limited production cuts in some steel mills in Tangshan, a short - term production - limit period, and a decline in demand in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region [1]. - Iron Ore: With an increase in global iron ore shipments and a slight fluctuation in hot - metal output, the iron ore price is expected to show a volatile consolidation trend in the short term [1]. - Coking Coal: Considering the slow resumption of coal mines and the high - level operation of hot - metal output, the coking coal futures market is expected to fluctuate in the short term [1]. - Coke: As some coke enterprises have received production - limit notices and steel prices are weakly volatile, the coke futures market is expected to fluctuate in the short term, although there is still some rigid demand support [1]. - Silicomanganese: Given the continuous increase in silicomanganese production, low demand from steel mills, and a change in market sentiment, the silicomanganese futures price is expected to operate weakly in a volatile manner in the short term [1]. - Ferrosilicon: With continuous growth in ferrosilicon production, weak demand, and limited fundamental driving forces, the ferrosilicon futures price is expected to operate weakly in a volatile manner in the short term [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views | Variety | Closing Price | Price Change | Trading Volume | Position Change | Spot Price | Supply - Demand Situation | Market Outlook | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | 3132 yuan/ton (2510 contract) | +6 yuan/ton, +0.19% | - | -85,300 lots | Tangshan billet: 3020 yuan/ton; Hangzhou rebar: 3230 yuan/ton | Production decreased, social inventory increased, factory inventory decreased, and apparent demand increased slightly | Volatile and weak | | Iron Ore | 769 yuan/ton (i2601 contract) | -2 yuan/ton, -0.26% | 290,000 lots | -9,000 lots | PB powder: 767 yuan/ton; PB lump: 915 yuan/ton; Carajás fines: 878 yuan/ton; Super Special fines: 648 yuan/ton | Global shipments increased, and hot - metal output fluctuated slightly | Volatile consolidation | | Coking Coal | 1162.5 yuan/ton (2601 contract) | -32 yuan/ton, -2.68% | - | -15,151 lots | Lvliang raw coal: 518 yuan/ton; Mongolian coal: decreased | Slow resumption of coal mines, high - level operation of hot - metal output | Volatile | | Coke | 1678 yuan/ton (2601 contract) | -30.5 yuan/ton, -1.79% | - | +644 lots | Rizhao port: 1470 yuan/ton | Production enthusiasm of coke enterprises increased, some received production - limit notices | Volatile | | Silicomanganese | 5836 yuan/ton (main contract) | -2.24% | - | +19,417 lots to 282,100 lots | 5600 - 5800 yuan/ton | Production increased continuously, steel mills' demand was low | Volatile and weak | | Ferrosilicon | 5622 yuan/ton (main contract) | -1.75% | - | -4976 lots to 228,100 lots | 5300 - 5350 yuan/ton | Production increased, supply - demand was in a game | Volatile and weak | [1][3] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring The report provides data on contract spreads, basis, and spot prices for various black commodities, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, silicomanganese, and ferrosilicon, as well as data on profits and spreads between different varieties [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - Main Contract Prices: It shows the closing price trends of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, silicomanganese, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [7][9][13][16]. - Main Contract Basis: It presents the basis trends of main contracts for various black commodities over different periods [19][20][23][25]. - Inter - period Contract Spreads: It shows the spread trends between different contracts for various black commodities [28][32][34][36][37][40]. - Inter - variety Contract Spreads: It includes spread trends such as the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio, etc. [42][44][46]. - Rebar Profits: It shows the profit trends of rebar main contracts, including on - disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit [47][50]. 3.4 Black Research Team Members The report introduces the members of the black research team, including their positions, work experience, and professional qualifications [54][55].