Shanghai Lonyer(SH:603003) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-08-21 03:40Report Information - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Copper Risk Management Daily Report - Report Date: August 21, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team - Analyst: Xiao Yufei [1][2] Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Copper prices declined slightly on Wednesday, indicating that downstream demand cannot absorb high prices in the short term. In the short run, copper prices are likely to continue to fluctuate. - Downstream terminals are hesitant about the negative demand feedback in August caused by US tariffs and believe that current prices have largely fulfilled previous expectations, but it takes time to digest price increases. - Attention should be paid to Powell's speech at the Global Central Bank Annual Meeting. In the short term, the US dollar index has strong support below, which exerts pressure on the overall valuation of non - ferrous metals [3] Key Points from Different Sections Copper Price and Volatility - The latest copper price is 78,640 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 11.64%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 22.6% [2] Copper Risk Management Suggestions Inventory Management - For high - level finished product inventory and concerns about price drops, with a long spot exposure, it is recommended to short the main Shanghai copper futures contract at a hedging ratio of 75% around 82,000 yuan/ton and sell call options (CU2510C82000) at a hedging ratio of 25% when volatility is relatively stable [2] Raw Material Management - For low - level raw material inventory and concerns about price increases, with a short spot exposure, it is recommended to long the main Shanghai copper futures contract at a hedging ratio of 75% around 77,000 yuan/ton [2] Factors Affecting Copper Prices Bullish Factors - The US reaches an agreement on tariff policies with other countries - Increased interest - rate cut expectations lead to a decline in the US dollar index, boosting the valuation of non - ferrous metals - The lower support level is raised [4] Bearish Factors - Tariff policies are inconsistent - Global demand decreases due to tariff policies - Adjustments to US copper tariff policies result in an extremely high COMEX inventory [4][5] Copper Futures Market Data | Futures Contract | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Copper Main | yuan/ton | 78,640 | 0 | 0% | | Shanghai Copper Continuous 1 | yuan/ton | 78,630 | - 240 | - 0.3% | | Shanghai Copper Continuous 3 | yuan/ton | 78,610 | 0 | 0% | | LME Copper 3M | US dollars/ton | 9,721 | 36.5 | 0.38% | | Shanghai - London Ratio | Ratio | 8.2 | - 0.01 | - 0.12% | [4] Copper Spot Market Data | Spot Market | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 Copper | yuan/ton | 78,770 | - 330 | - 0.42% | | Shanghai Material Trade | yuan/ton | 78,685 | - 365 | - 0.46% | | Guangdong Southern Reserve | yuan/ton | 78,630 | - 340 | - 0.43% | | Yangtze Non - ferrous | yuan/ton | 78,850 | - 370 | - 0.47% | | Shanghai Non - ferrous Premium/Discount | yuan/ton | 190 | - 5 | - 2.56% | | Shanghai Material Trade Premium/Discount | yuan/ton | 115 | - 15 | - 11.54% | | Guangdong Southern Reserve Premium/Discount | yuan/ton | 140 | - 15 | - 9.68% | | Yangtze Non - ferrous Premium/Discount | yuan/ton | 175 | - 10 | - 5.41% | [11] Copper Scrap - Refined Spread | Spread Indicator | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Current Scrap - Refined Spread (Tax - included) | yuan/ton | 944.04 | - 105.85 | - 10.08% | | Reasonable Scrap - Refined Spread (Tax - included) | yuan/ton | 1,487.1 | - 4.25 | - 0.28% | | Price Advantage (Tax - included) | yuan/ton | - 543.06 | - 101.6 | 23.01% | | Current Scrap - Refined Spread (Tax - excluded) | yuan/ton | 5,610 | - 125 | - 2.18% | | Reasonable Scrap - Refined Spread (Tax - excluded) | yuan/ton | 6,162.47 | - 29.5 | - 0.48% | | Price Advantage (Tax - excluded) | yuan/ton | - 552.47 | - 95.5 | 20.9% | [16] Copper Warehouse Receipts and Inventory SHFE Copper Warehouse Receipts - Total SHFE copper warehouse receipts: 25,223 tons, a daily decrease of 275 tons (- 1.08%) - Total international copper warehouse receipts: 6,724 tons, a daily decrease of 2,056 tons (- 23.42%) [20] LME Copper Inventory - Total LME copper inventory: 156,350 tons, an increase of 1,200 tons (0.77%) - LME copper registered warehouse receipts: 145,600 tons, an increase of 1,700 tons (1.18%) - LME copper cancelled warehouse receipts: 10,750 tons, a decrease of 500 tons (- 4.44%) [22] COMEX Copper Inventory - Total COMEX copper inventory: 270,536 tons, a weekly increase of 3,741 tons (1.4%) - COMEX copper registered warehouse receipts: 136,699 tons, a weekly decrease of 9,299 tons (- 0.07%) - COMEX copper cancelled warehouse receipts: 133,837 tons, a weekly increase of 693 tons (0.52%) [23] Copper Import Profit and Processing | Indicator | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper Import Profit/Loss | yuan/ton | 354.75 | 22.36 | 6.73% | | Copper Concentrate TC | US dollars/ton | - 38.2 | - 0.53 | 1.41% | [24]