关注美欧8月制造业PMI初值和杰克逊霍尔会议

Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The economic data in July showed resilience globally, but there were still pressures in China's monthly economic data. The market sentiment and fundamentals were divergent, and attention should be paid to the potential demand changes after the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs 2.0" [1]. - The current tariff situation was in a "stagnant" phase, which would have a certain negative impact on commodities highly dependent on external demand. There were uncertainties regarding tariffs and inflation, and the export of Japan was significantly affected [2]. - Different commodity sectors had different characteristics. The black and new - energy metal sectors were sensitive to domestic supply - side factors, and the energy and non - ferrous sectors benefited from overseas inflation expectations. The "anti - involution" progress and the restoration of the economic fundamentals before the introduction of the April reciprocal tariffs were the key points for future market trends [3]. - For commodities and stock index futures, industrial products should be allocated on dips [4]. Market Analysis - In July, China's official manufacturing PMI declined to 49.3, while non - manufacturing remained in expansion. China's exports in July increased by 7.2% year - on - year in US dollars, and the central bank kept the LPR unchanged. In the US, the July non - farm payrolls data was below expectations, but the service PMI improved. The implementation of the "reciprocal tariffs 2.0" required attention to subsequent demand [1]. - On August 20, A - shares rose, with semiconductor, automobile, and liquor sectors performing strongly, while pharmaceutical stocks adjusted. Most domestic commodity futures declined, with lithium carbonate down 8%, soda ash down 5%, and glass down over 4% [1]. Tariff Impact - On July 31, the White House issued an executive order to reset "reciprocal tariffs" for some countries. The US and China agreed to suspend the 24% tariff for 90 days starting from August 12, 2025. The US added 407 product categories to the steel and aluminum tariff list with a 50% rate, and Trump might announce a 300% semiconductor tariff [2]. - After the July FOMC meeting, Powell did not give guidance on a September rate cut, emphasizing uncertainties in tariffs and inflation. Japan's exports in July had the largest year - on - year decline in four years, especially to the US [2]. Commodity Analysis - The black and new - energy metal sectors were sensitive to domestic supply - side factors, and the energy and non - ferrous sectors benefited from overseas inflation expectations. The black sector was dragged down by downstream demand expectations, and the supply shortage in the non - ferrous sector persisted [3]. - The energy supply was expected to be relatively loose in the medium - term, with OPEC+ increasing production by 548,000 barrels per day in August. There were positive developments in the Russia - Ukraine peace talks, and Trump had no plan to impose tariffs on China's purchase of Russian oil [3]. - In the chemical sector, the "anti - involution" space of methanol, PVC, caustic soda, and urea was worthy of attention. The short - term fluctuations of agricultural products were limited due to the absence of weather disturbances [3]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, industrial products should be allocated on dips [4]. Key News - China's five - year and one - year LPR in August remained unchanged at 3.5% and 3%, respectively [5]. - The US Treasury Secretary said that the US and China had a "very good dialogue" on economic and trade issues and expected to meet again before November [5]. - The US added 407 product categories to the steel and aluminum tariff list on August 19. Trump called for the resignation of Fed Governor Lisa Cook. The eurozone's July CPI met expectations, and Japan's exports in July had the largest decline in four years [5].