Group 1: Research Views - On August 20, industrial silicon fluctuated weakly. The main contract 2511 closed at 8,390 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 2.89%. The position decreased by 6,737 lots to 279,900 lots. The spot reference price of industrial silicon by Baichuan was 9,407 yuan/ton, down 109 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 grade dropped to 8,750 yuan/ton, and the spot premium widened to 440 yuan/ton [2]. - Polysilicon also fluctuated weakly. The main contract 2511 closed at 51,875 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 0.52%. The position decreased by 12,109 lots to 150,000 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon feedstock rose to 47,000 yuan/ton, while the price of the lowest deliverable silicon feedstock dropped to 44,500 yuan/ton. The spot discount narrowed to 7,305 yuan/ton [2]. - Southwest industrial silicon production continued to increase, while the organic silicon industry cut production and reduced procurement. The increase in polysilicon production was expected to be limited, and the inventory depletion of industrial silicon slowed down. There was obvious upward pressure, and it would still follow the fluctuation rhythm of coking coal within the range [2]. - There was a strong separation between volume and price in polysilicon. There was a contradiction between cost - based pricing and rising production. Warehouse receipt registration could not relieve the pressure on factory warehouses. The actual production - restriction quotas and progress of the photovoltaic conference were still confidential, and market price - adjustment and production - restriction news was complex and divergent. Downstream players were highly skeptical and trading was scarce, which restricted the continuous upward movement of polysilicon. In the short term, short - selling at the upper edge of the range could be continued, and the industry's production - restriction news should be continuously monitored [2]. Group 2: Daily Data Monitoring Industrial Silicon - Futures settlement prices: The main contract decreased from 8,640 yuan/ton on August 19 to 8,330 yuan/ton on August 20, a decrease of 310 yuan/ton; the near - month contract decreased from 8,610 yuan/ton to 8,310 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan/ton [4]. - Spot prices of various grades and regions generally declined. For example, the price of non - oxygenated 553 silicon in East China decreased from 9,200 yuan/ton to 9,050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton [4]. - The current lowest deliverable price decreased from 8,950 yuan/ton to 8,750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton. The spot premium increased from 340 yuan/ton to 440 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton [4]. Polysilicon - Futures settlement prices: The main contract decreased from 52,260 yuan/ton to 51,875 yuan/ton, a decrease of 385 yuan/ton; the near - month contract decreased from 52,260 yuan/ton to 51,805 yuan/ton, a decrease of 455 yuan/ton [4]. - Among spot prices, the price of N - type granular silicon feedstock increased significantly, from 34,000 yuan/ton to 44,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 10,000 yuan/ton. The current lowest deliverable price remained unchanged at 44,500 yuan/ton, and the spot discount narrowed from - 7,760 yuan/ton to - 7,305 yuan/ton, a reduction of 455 yuan/ton [4]. Organic Silicon - The price of DMC in the East China market remained unchanged at 11,000 yuan/ton, and the prices of raw rubber and 107 glue also remained unchanged. The price of dimethyl silicone oil increased from 11,800 yuan/ton to 14,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,500 yuan/ton [4]. Inventory - Industrial silicon: The daily industrial silicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 50,625. The weekly inventory in the Guangzhou Futures Exchange increased from 251,700 tons to 252,995 tons, an increase of 1,295 tons. The total social inventory of industrial silicon increased by 100 tons to 439,900 tons [4]. - Polysilicon: The daily polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 5,930. The weekly inventory in the Guangzhou Futures Exchange increased from 108,600 tons to 168,000 tons, an increase of 59,000 tons. The total social inventory of polysilicon decreased by 6,000 tons to 268,000 tons [4]. Group 3: Chart Analysis 3.1 Industrial Silicon and Cost - side Prices - Charts show prices of different grades of industrial silicon, price differences between grades, regional price differences, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [5][7][10]. 3.2 Downstream Finished Product Prices - Charts display prices of DMC, organic silicon finished products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [13][14][16]. 3.3 Inventory - Charts present industrial silicon futures inventory, factory inventory, weekly industry inventory, weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [19][20][22]. 3.4 Cost and Profit - Charts show average cost and profit levels in major production areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, aluminum alloy processing industry profit, DMC cost - profit, and polysilicon cost - profit [25][27][32]. Group 4: Team Introduction - The non - ferrous metals team includes Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi. Zhan Dapeng is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with more than a decade of commodity research experience. Wang Heng focuses on aluminum and silicon research, and Zhu Xi focuses on lithium and nickel research [34][35].
光大期货工业硅日报-20250821
Guang Da Qi Huo·2025-08-21 03:39