8月20日风险管理日报：镍、不锈钢：受大盘影响有所下行-20250821

Group 1: Report General Information - Report title: Nickel & Stainless Steel: Declined Affected by the Market, August 20th Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Research team: Nanhua New Energy & Precious Metals Research Team [1] - Analysts: Xia Yingying, Guan Chenghan [1] Group 2: Price Range and Volatility - Shanghai Nickel price range prediction: 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, current volatility (20 - day rolling) 15.17%, historical percentile 3.2% [2] - Stainless steel price range prediction: 12,500 - 13,100 yuan/ton, current volatility (20 - day rolling) 9.27%, historical percentile 1.8% [2] Group 3: Risk Management Strategies Nickel - Inventory management: When product sales price drops and inventory has impairment risk, sell Shanghai Nickel futures according to inventory level to lock in profit and hedge spot price decline risk, sell 60% of NI main contract; sell 50% of call options [2] - Procurement management: When the company has future production procurement needs and is worried about raw material price increase, buy Shanghai Nickel forward contracts according to production plan to lock in production cost, buy based on procurement plan; sell put options and buy out - of - the - money call options [2] Stainless steel - Inventory management: When product sales price drops and inventory has impairment risk, sell stainless steel futures according to inventory level to lock in profit and hedge spot price decline risk, sell 60% of SS main contract; sell 50% of call options [3] - Procurement management: When the company has future production procurement needs and is worried about raw material price increase, buy stainless steel forward contracts according to production plan to lock in production cost, buy based on procurement plan; sell put options and buy out - of - the - money call options [3] Group 4: Core Contradiction - Shanghai Nickel's intraday trend was oscillating weakly, mainly affected by the market. After the digestion of positive macro - level sentiment, it entered a correction phase, with no obvious change in fundamentals. Indonesia's second - phase benchmark price in August was slightly adjusted downward. Nickel ore was still in the peak shipping season with weakening support. Nickel iron remained firm, with some low - grade specifications in short supply. The new energy link salt plants were relatively strong, with a tight MHP market and some traders raising coefficients due to shortages. Stainless steel also showed a weak trend, with spot prices adjusted downward and a strong wait - and - see sentiment in spot trading [4] Group 5: Market Factors Positive factors - Indonesia's APNI plans to revise the HPM formula, adding elements like iron and cobalt; shorten the nickel ore quota license period from three years to one year; the construction of the Yarlung Zangbo River Hydropower Station may increase stainless steel demand [6] Negative factors - Stainless steel has entered the traditional off - season, with slow inventory reduction; high pure nickel inventory; seasonal increase in nickel ore inventory with weakening bottom support; Sino - US tariff disturbances; South Korea plans to impose anti - dumping duties on China's hot - rolled products [6] Group 6: Market Data Nickel - Futures prices: Shanghai Nickel main continuous contract 119,930 yuan/ton (unchanged); Shanghai Nickel continuous - one contract 120,060 yuan/ton, down 390 yuan (- 0.32%); Shanghai Nickel continuous - two contract 120,300 yuan/ton, down 420 yuan (- 0.35%); Shanghai Nickel continuous - three contract 120,510 yuan/ton, down 490 yuan (- 0.35%); LME Nickel 3M 15,045 US dollars/ton, down 15 US dollars (- 0.40%) [6] - Trading volume: 63,676 lots (unchanged) [6] - Open interest: 50,856 lots (unchanged) [6] - Warehouse receipts: 22,559 tons, down 282 tons (- 1.23%) [6] - Basis of main contract: - 1,300 yuan/ton, up 275 yuan (26.8%) [6] Stainless steel - Futures prices: Stainless steel main continuous contract 12,820 yuan/ton (unchanged); stainless steel continuous - one contract 12,820 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan (- 0.50%); stainless steel continuous - two contract 12,890 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan (- 0.50%); stainless steel continuous - three contract 12,925 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan (- 0.54%) [7] - Trading volume: 149,736 lots (unchanged) [7] - Open interest: 135,764 lots (unchanged) [7] - Warehouse receipts: 119,769 tons, down 2,334 tons (- 1.91%) [7] - Basis of main contract: 650 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan (11.11%) [7] Group 7: Industry Inventory - Domestic social nickel inventory: 41,891 tons, up 1,319 tons [8] - LME nickel inventory: 209,346 tons, up 18 tons [8] - Stainless steel social inventory: 933.6 tons, down 20.4 tons [8] - Nickel pig iron inventory: 33,111 tons, down 304 tons [8]