尿素早评：出口预期影响市场-20250821

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The previous trading day, UR fluctuated and declined, closing at 1776. The decline in the futures market was mainly due to the uncertainty of exports and the real supply - demand pressure in the domestic market. Agricultural demand has entered the off - season, while domestic supply remains high, with a daily output of about 190,000 tons and upstream inventory of about 860,000 tons. Although the current export policy is unclear, exports can help relieve the pressure of high supply under the condition of sufficient domestic supply and low prices. It is necessary to prevent the excessive short - term increase in urea prices, which is not conducive to the policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices. It is recommended to pay attention to the long - buying opportunities after the decline. [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices: UR01 in Shandong closed at 1776 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan or 2.26% from the previous day; UR05 closed at 1810 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan or 1.58%; UR09 closed at 1751 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan or 1.79%. [1] - Spot prices: In Henan, the domestic spot price was 1780 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan or 2.30%; in Hebei (small - particle), it was 1770 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan or 1.72%; in Northeast China, it remained unchanged at 1750 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 1780 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan or 2.30%. [1] Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR was - 40 yuan/ton, up 69 yuan from the previous day. The 01 - 05 spread was - 34 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan from the previous day. [1] Upstream and Downstream Prices - Upstream: The price of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1000 yuan/ton and 900 yuan/ton respectively. [1] - Downstream: The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong remained unchanged at 2950 yuan/ton; in Henan, it remained unchanged at 2550 yuan/ton. The price of melamine in Shandong was 5250 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan or 0.48%; in Jiangsu, it remained unchanged at 5100 yuan/ton. [1] Important Information - The previous trading day, the opening price of the main contract 2601 of urea futures was 1793 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1804 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1774 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1776 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1788 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 208,609 lots. [1]