化工日报：韩国石化业或削减产能，化工板块上涨-20250821

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the context of concerns about the reduction of production capacity and restructuring in the South Korean petrochemical industry, the chemical sector rose significantly on Wednesday afternoon. If the restructuring, reduction, or suspension of production in the South Korean petrochemical industry affects PX, the impact will be relatively large, and currently, the impact is concentrated on naphtha cracking [1]. - The cost - side is affected by the meeting between the leaders of the US and Russia, and the negotiation situation is good but no agreement has been reached. Attention should be paid to the US - Ukraine summit this week. The PX balance sheet has changed from destocking to a loose balance, and the fundamentals have weakened month - on - month. The floating price of near - month PX has weakened, but PX is still in a low - inventory state. The demand side of PTA has passed the most pessimistic period, and the supply - demand situation has improved in the short term due to PTA maintenance, but the price is suppressed by the mainstream suppliers' shipments [2]. - The polyester operating rate is 89.4% (a month - on - month increase of 0.6%). The most pessimistic period of the current off - season for demand has passed, and there are signs of improvement in local orders. The load of weaving and texturing has rebounded, and the sales of filament factories have increased. It is expected that the polyester load will continue to stabilize and rise in the short term [3]. - For the single - side strategy, PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated as neutral. For the cross - variety strategy, short the PTA processing fee when it is high and long the PR processing fee when it is low. There is no cross - period strategy [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Price and Basis - The charts include the TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural white basis [9][10][12] 3.2 Upstream Profits and Spreads - The charts cover PX processing fee PXN (PX China CFR - naphtha Japan CFR), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [18][21] 3.3 International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - The charts involve the toluene US - Asia spread (FOB US Gulf - FOB South Korea), toluene South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [26][28] 3.4 Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - The charts show the operating rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the operating rates of PX in China and Asia [29][32][34] 3.5 Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The charts display the weekly social inventory of PTA, monthly social inventory of PX, total PTA warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [37][40][41] 3.6 Downstream Polyester Load - The charts include the sales of filaments and short - fibers, polyester load, direct - spun filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom operating rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing machine operating rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang dyeing operating rate, and filament profits [49][51][60] 3.7 PF Detailed Data - The charts involve polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, difference between original and recycled fibers, pure polyester yarn operating rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn operating rate, and polyester - cotton yarn processing fee [73][82][84] 3.8 PR Fundamental Detailed Data - The charts cover polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, price difference between East China water bottle chips and recycled 3A - grade white bottle chips, bottle - chip inter - month spread (next month - base month), and bottle - chip inter - two - month spread (two months later - base month) [91][93][101]