铁矿石：黑色系弱势反弹，短期矿价跟随运行

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Report's Core View - The overall supply - demand relationship of iron ore is shifting from balanced and tight to balanced, with supply growth exceeding expectations and demand remaining resilient. Short - term prices will follow the sector's trend. The market is currently more focused on the industrial fundamentals, and although there are expectations for incremental monetary and fiscal policies in the future, the short - term trading is mainly based on industry conditions [2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Logic - After consecutive days of weakness, the black series rebounded yesterday due to the news of military parade production restrictions, and the implementation strength needs further attention. The macro - level disturbances have weakened, and the market has returned to the industrial fundamentals. The apparent demand for finished products is weak, and the carbon element's valuation on the futures market has returned. The supply - demand contradiction of iron ore has weakened. The high profit of blast furnaces has declined from its peak, and short - process steelmaking at off - peak electricity has fallen into losses again. The short - term demand for iron ore has strong resilience but limited growth space, and the unexpected increase in supply has also suppressed the futures price [2] Supply - The shipment of foreign iron ore has increased more than expected. Australia's shipment is stable with a slight increase, Brazil's shipment has reached a record high, and the shipment from non - mainstream sources has risen for three consecutive weeks and reached a record high for the same period. The arrival volume is at a moderately high level and is generally on the rise, and the marginal support from the supply side is weakening [2] Demand - The daily average pig iron output in China has ended three consecutive weeks of decline and rebounded slightly, with the current daily average pig iron output at 240.66 (a week - on - week increase of 0.34). The current profitability of steel mills is high, and the blast furnace profit is relatively good. Short - process steelmaking is in full - scale losses again. The short - term demand for iron ore remains resilient, and the high domestic demand strongly supports the price. Attention should be paid to whether the pig iron output can maintain its high - level upward trend and the military parade production restrictions in North China [3] Inventory - The daily consumption of imported iron ore at steel mills remains high, and the inventory at steel mills has continued to rise on a week - on - week basis and is higher than that of the same period last year. Due to the increase in arrival volume, the port inventory has slightly accumulated this period. Looking forward, as the arrival volume decreases and the pig iron output remains high, the inventory is expected to remain stable or decline slightly in the short term [3]