甲醇日评：反弹空间有限-20250821

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The report believes that the fundamentals of methanol are still weak, and the rebound space is expected to be limited. It is recommended to short on rallies. The valuation of methanol is relatively high, and there is room for repair of downstream profits. The supply of methanol from domestic and imported sources will put downward pressure on prices, and the upward driving force is not strong [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Price Changes - Methanol Futures Prices: MA01 increased from 2391 yuan/ton to 2424 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.38%; MA05 rose from 2376 yuan/ton to 2402 yuan/ton, up 1.09%; MA09 climbed from 2285 yuan/ton to 2315 yuan/ton, a 1.31% increase [1]. - Methanol Spot Prices: In太仓, it went up from 2280 yuan/ton to 2300 yuan/ton, a 0.88% increase; in Shandong, it decreased from 2315 yuan/ton to 2300 yuan/ton, a -0.65% change; in Guangdong, it rose from 2275 yuan/ton to 2290 yuan/ton, a 0.66% increase [1]. - Coal Spot Prices: The price of Ordos Q5500 decreased from 520 yuan/ton to 517.50 yuan/ton, a -0.48% change; the price of Datong Q5500 remained unchanged at 582.50 yuan/ton; the price of Yulin Q6000 dropped from 575 yuan/ton to 572.50 yuan/ton, a -0.43% change [1]. - Industrial Natural Gas Prices: The prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged at 3.94 yuan/cubic meter and 3.19 yuan/cubic meter respectively [1]. b) Profit Situation - Methanol Production Profits: The profit of coal - to - methanol remained at 373.70 yuan/ton, and the profit of natural gas - to - methanol stayed at -462 yuan/ton [1]. - Downstream Profits: The profit of Northwest MTO decreased from 122 yuan/ton to 72 yuan/ton, a -40.98% change; the profit of East China MTO dropped from -421.57 yuan/ton to -471.57 yuan/ton, a -11.86% change; the profit of acetic acid decreased from 248.86 yuan/ton to 237.32 yuan/ton, a -4.64% change; the profit of MTBE decreased from 69.12 yuan/ton to 39.12 yuan/ton, a -43.40% change [1]. c) Important Information - Domestic Information: The main methanol contract MA2601 stopped falling and rebounded, opening at 2393 yuan/ton and closing at 2424 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 762,703 lots, and the open interest was 674,733 lots, showing increasing volume and decreasing open interest [1]. - Foreign Information: Currently, only one 1.65 - million - ton methanol plant in a Middle - Eastern country is under maintenance, and the remaining plants are operating at their normal loads. Attention should be paid to the operation of local methanol plants in the second half of the month [1]. d) Trading Strategy The rebound on the previous trading day was mainly due to the successful trial - run of a downstream glacial acetic acid plant and the reduction of naphtha capacity in South Korea, which boosted the olefin prices. However, considering the weak fundamentals, it is recommended to short on rallies [1].