【早间看点】AmSpec马棕8月前20日出口增加17.5%作物巡查内布拉斯加州豆荚数为22年来最高-20250821

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents a comprehensive overview of the agricultural and energy futures markets, including overnight and spot market conditions, important fundamental information, macro - economic news, and capital flow data. It also provides insights into international and domestic supply - demand dynamics for various commodities such as palm oil, soybeans, and grains. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Overnight Market Conditions - Overnight closing prices and price changes of various futures contracts are provided, including BMD palm oil, ICE Brent crude, NYMEX WTI crude, CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil. For example, BMD palm oil 11 closed at 4529.00 with a previous - day decline of 0.51% and an overnight increase of 0.71% [1]. - Exchange rate data for major currencies are also presented, such as the US dollar index, CNY/USD, MYR/USD, etc. For instance, the US dollar index was at 98.22 with a decline of 0.05% [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Conditions - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes for DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal in different regions are given. For example, DCE palm oil 2601 in North China had a spot price of 9820 with a basis of 100 and no change in basis from the previous day [2]. - CNF quotes and CNF premium changes for imported soybeans from different origins are also included, with Brazilian soybeans having a CNF premium of 307 cents per bushel and a CNF quote of 495 dollars per ton [2]. 3.3 Important Fundamental Information 3.3.1 Production Area Weather - The future weather outlook for US soybean - producing states from August 25 - 29 indicates that temperatures will be below normal and precipitation will mostly be near to below the median. Some parts of the US Midwest will experience rainfall and temperature drops [4][6]. 3.3.2 International Supply - Demand - Malaysian palm oil exports from August 1 - 20 increased by 17.5% according to AmSpec and 13.61% according to ITS compared to the same period last month [7]. - Indonesia plans to increase its crude palm oil production from 48.2 million tons in 2024 to 60 million tons by 2030 [8]. - Nebraska's soybean pod count is at a 22 - year high, while Indiana's is slightly lower than 2024 but higher than the three - year average [9]. 3.3.3 Domestic Supply - Demand - On August 20, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 79,066 tons, a 152% increase from the previous day. The trading volume of soybean meal was 114,900 tons, an increase of 6,800 tons from the previous day [14]. - China's palm oil imports in July 2025 decreased by 47.22% month - on - month and 46.79% year - on - year. Soybean imports decreased by 4.86% month - on - month but increased by 18.39% year - on - year. Rapeseed imports decreased by 4.61% month - on - month and 56.63% year - on - year [14][15]. 3.4 Macro - economic News 3.4.1 International News - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 18.1%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 81.9% [16]. - The Eurozone's CPI annual rate in July was 2%, and the monthly rate was 0%. The Indonesian central bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points [17]. 3.4.2 Domestic News - On August 20, the US dollar/CNY exchange rate was 7.1384, up 25 points (CNY depreciation). The Chinese central bank conducted 616 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 497.5 billion yuan [19]. 3.5 Capital Flow - On August 20, 2025, the futures market had a net capital inflow of 3.705 billion yuan. Commodity futures had a net capital outflow of 12.337 billion yuan, while stock index futures had a net capital inflow of 16.042 billion yuan [23]. 3.6 Arbitrage Tracking No relevant content provided.