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双焦周报:供需边际转弱-20250821
Zi Jin Tian Feng Qi Huo·2025-08-21 05:46

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Coking Coal: The overall investment rating for coking coal is neutral. The sub - ratings are: neutral for the core view, neutral - bearish for the spot market, neutral for the warehouse receipt cost, neutral - bullish for the supply, neutral for the demand, neutral for the basis, and neutral - bullish for the inventory [3]. - Coke: The overall investment rating for coke is neutral. The sub - ratings are: neutral for the core view, neutral for the spot market, neutral - bearish for the warehouse receipt cost, neutral for the supply, neutral for the demand, neutral for the profit, and neutral for the inventory [4]. Core Views - Coking Coal: The coking coal market maintains a tight balance between supply and demand, but the fundamentals are clearly weakening. The spot market has weakened, with some pit - mouth prices decreasing. The supply side has seen a reduction in the impact of over - production checks, but some mines are still shut down due to working - face changes, keeping production at a low level. Mongolian coal has recovered to normal customs - clearance levels. The demand side shows that downstream buyers resist high prices, mainly pulling goods from previous orders with few new orders. The short - term price still has room for a correction [3]. - Coke: Six rounds of price increases for coke have been implemented, and the seventh round is still under negotiation. After the six - round increase, coke enterprises have overall made profits, and the coking operation rate remains relatively high, but some areas will implement production restrictions before the parade, with a limited expected impact. The demand side shows that the average daily hot - metal output of 247 steel mills is 240.7 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.3 tons, and steel mills have good profits. Currently, steel mills generally have enough coke, but top - charged coke is in short supply. Overall, the coke supply - demand relationship is tight, mainly following the fluctuations of raw coal [4]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Coking Coal Spot Market - The spot sentiment has significantly weakened due to the previous rapid price increase. Currently, there are more price cuts in auctions, and the auction failure rate has increased. Most pit - mouth quotes remain stable, with some prices decreasing by less than 50 yuan/ton. The price of low - sulfur prime coking coal in Anze, Shanxi, has dropped to 1480 (- 20) yuan/ton [3][8]. - Mongolian coal at the port is in short supply, and the price has declined following the futures market. The current port transaction price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal is around 1000 yuan/ton [14]. Warehouse Receipt Cost - The current lowest Mongolian coal warehouse receipt is around 1110 yuan/ton, with a slight premium on the 01 futures contract [31]. Supply - The coal - mine capacity utilization rate has declined, dropping to 85.37% last week, a week - on - week decrease of 0.42%. The Shanxi capacity utilization rate has decreased to 88.27%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.49%. After the over - production self - check stage ended on August 15, the impact of over - production checks has decreased in the short term, but some mines are shut down due to working - face changes. Mongolian coal customs - clearance has increased, but the overall supply remains tight [3][53]. Demand - Downstream buyers have a low acceptance of high - priced coal and mainly pull goods from previous orders [3]. Basis - The futures market has a slight premium [3]. Inventory - The upstream inventory is still low, but the inventory reduction has slowed down, and downstream enterprises have a weak willingness to replenish inventory [3]. Coke Spot Market - Six rounds of price increases for coke were implemented last week, with an increase of 50 - 55 yuan/ton. The seventh - round price increase has been proposed but is still under negotiation. The quasi - first - grade coke price at Rizhao Port is 1470 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton [4][104]. Warehouse Receipt Cost - After the six - round price increase, the wet - quenching warehouse receipt cost for coke is 1575 yuan/ton [109]. Supply - Coke enterprises have made profits. Some coke enterprises in certain areas have received production - restriction notices, but since their operation rates were not high originally, the impact is limited [4]. Demand - The average daily hot - metal output of 247 steel mills is 240.7 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.3 tons. The blast - furnace operation rate of 247 steel mills is 83.59%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.16%. Steel mills have good profits, and the hot - metal output is expected to remain stable this week, with production restrictions expected during the parade week [4][119]. Profit - Coke enterprises generally made profits after the six - round price increase, but it is difficult to implement the seventh - round increase [4]. Inventory - Steel mills increased their inventory replenishment previously, but the inventory structure is unbalanced, mainly lacking top - charged coke [4]. Historical Data on Supply - Demand Balance Coking Coal - From 2024 - 2025, the production, import, consumption, and inventory of coking coal have shown certain fluctuations. For example, in 2025, the production decreased in some months, and the import volume also changed. The total consumption had a certain growth trend, and the inventory fluctuated accordingly [155]. Coke - From 2025, the production, import, export, consumption, and inventory of coke have also changed. The production showed a slight increase in some months and a decrease in others. The consumption also had corresponding fluctuations, and the inventory gradually increased [157].