碳酸锂日评：波动再放大，持仓注意保护-20250821

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View - On August 20, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures hit the daily limit down. The physical market saw rigid - demand procurement, and the basis changed from discount to premium. In the short - term, both supply and demand are strengthening, with the situation at the Jiangxi mine end remaining active, and the short - term fundamentals showing little change. It is necessary to guard against the decline of the "anti - involution" sentiment, and the lithium carbonate price is expected to fluctuate widely. Operationally, it is recommended to conduct short - term range trading and appropriately buy options for protection [3]. Summary by Related Catalog Futures Market Data - Prices: On August 20, the closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, consecutive - three contracts and the overall closing price of lithium carbonate futures decreased compared to August 19, with declines ranging from 6,540 to 6,560 yuan/ton. The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 951 dollars/ton, down 27 dollars/ton from the previous day; the average prices of various lithium - containing raw materials such as lithium mica also decreased [3]. - Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of lithium carbonate futures was 838,879 lots, an increase of 103,950 lots compared to August 19. The open interest was 395,102 lots, a decrease of 18,995 lots [3]. - Inventory: The inventory was 24,045 tons, an increase of 430 tons compared to August 19 [3]. - Spreads: The spreads between different contracts and the basis showed various changes. For example, the near - month - consecutive - one spread was 40 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan/ton; the basis changed from a discount to a premium, increasing by 6,560 yuan/ton [3]. Industry News - In June, the domestic mobile phone shipments were 22.598 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 9.3% [3]. - Charger Metals announced the inferred mineral resource estimate (MRE) of the Medcalf deposit in its Lake Johnston project in South Australia. The Medcalf deposit has an inferred mineral resource of 8.2 million tons with a lithium oxide (Li₂O) grade of 1.0% and a cut - off grade of 0.5%. The Medcalf West exploration area is expected to have a resource of 3 - 5 million tons with a Li₂O grade of 1.0% - 1.1%, and the mineralization in both areas is not closed at depth [3]. Supply and Demand - Supply: Last week, the lithium carbonate production increased. The prices of spodumene concentrate and lithium mica decreased [3]. - Demand: Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased. In August, the production schedule of lithium cobalt oxide decreased, while that of lithium carbonate increased. Last week, the production of power batteries increased. In July, although the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales continued, the sales volume decreased month - on - month, and the 3C shipments were average. In August, the production schedule of energy - storage batteries increased [3]. Inventory - The registered warehouse receipts were 24,045 tons (an increase of 30 tons). The social inventory situation was that smelters reduced inventory, while downstream and other sectors increased inventory [3].