HTSC·2025-08-21 05:55Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 7.63, up from the previous HKD 7.04 [6][26]. Core Insights - The company's 1H25 performance showed stable revenue at HKD 27.5 billion, with core profit slightly down by 3% year-on-year to HKD 3.08 billion, primarily due to higher financial costs from exchange rate factors [1][5]. - Gas sales in Hong Kong remained flat year-on-year, with residential gas volume increasing by 2.5% due to lower average temperatures, while commercial gas volume decreased by 2.3% [2][3]. - The company is expected to benefit from a stable local demand in Hong Kong, with an EBITDA margin projected to remain around 52% for 2025 [2]. - The growth rate of city gas sales in mainland China has slowed, with a slight increase in residential gas volume and a decrease in commercial gas volume due to warm winter conditions [3]. - The renewable energy and green fuel segments show growth potential, with net profit from renewable energy reaching HKD 116 million, up 6% year-on-year [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - 1H25 revenue was HKD 27.5 billion, core profit was HKD 3.08 billion, and net profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 2.96 billion, both down 3% year-on-year [1]. - The company maintains a stable interim dividend per share (DPS) of HKD 0.12, with an expected full-year DPS of HKD 0.35, corresponding to a dividend yield of 5.0% [1]. Gas Sales - Hong Kong gas sales volume for 1H25 was 14,935 TJ, remaining flat year-on-year, with residential gas volume increasing by 2.5% and commercial gas volume decreasing by 2.3% [2]. - The company expects gas sales in Hong Kong to remain stable in 2025, benefiting from a well-established pricing mechanism [2]. Mainland City Gas - The company reported city gas sales volume of 18.58 billion cubic meters in 1H25, remaining flat year-on-year, with industrial gas volume stable and commercial gas volume declining [3]. - The average city gas price difference was RMB 0.54 per cubic meter, up 0.04 RMB year-on-year, with expectations for price difference recovery to converge [3]. Renewable Energy and Green Fuel - The renewable energy business net profit reached HKD 116 million in 1H25, with expectations for continued growth in carbon services and asset management [4]. - The green energy business is expanding, with partnerships for green methanol and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production [4]. Profit Forecast Adjustments - The report adjusts the company's net profit forecasts for 2025-2027, with a projected CAGR of 6% [5][26]. - The target price is raised to HKD 7.63 based on a revised price-to-book ratio of 2.5x for 2025, reflecting the potential of renewable energy and green fuel businesses [5][26].