集运日报：以方不回应停火，现货运价维持下行趋势，盘面偏弱震荡，近期波动较大，不建议继续加仓，设置好止损。-20250821

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the game is difficult, so it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [5] - The spot freight rate maintains a downward trend, the futures market is weakly volatile with large recent fluctuations, and it is not recommended to increase positions. Set stop - losses [2] - Pay attention to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [5] 3. Summary by Related Content Freight Index - On August 18, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2180.17 points, down 2.5% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1106.29 points, up 2.2% from the previous period [3] - On August 15, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1052.5 points, down 0.1% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 1188.7 points, down 5.5% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 1042.91 points, down 5.9% from the previous period [3] - On August 15, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1460.19 points, down 29.49 points from the previous period; the SCFI for the European route was 1820 USD/TEU, down 7.2% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US - West route was 1759 USD/FEU, down 3.5% from the previous period [3] - On August 15, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1193.34 points, down 0.6% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1790.47 points, down 0.5% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 981.1 points, down 5.9% from the previous period [3] Economic Data - In July, the eurozone's manufacturing PMI was 49.8, higher than the expected 49.7 and the previous value of 49.5; the service PMI was 51.2, exceeding the expected 50.7 and the previous value of 50.5; the composite PMI was 51, higher than the expected 50.8 and the previous value of 50.6 [3] - The eurozone's SENTIX investor confidence index in July reached 4.5, significantly higher than 0.2 in June and the market - expected 1.1, hitting the highest level since April 2022 [3] - China's manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, and the manufacturing prosperity level declined [4] - The initial value of the US S&P Global manufacturing PMI in July was 49.5 (expected 52.7, previous value 52.9); the initial value of the service PMI was 55.2 (expected 53, previous value 52.9); the initial value of the Markit composite PMI was 54.6, the highest since December 2024, better than the expected 52.8 and the previous value of 52.9 [4] Market Situation - As of August 20, the Israeli side has not responded to the new cease - fire agreement proposed by Hamas, and the Israeli military has approved an offensive plan for Gaza City [7] - Sino - US tariffs continue to be extended, and there is no substantial progress in the negotiations. The tariff war has evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries, and the spot price has slightly decreased [5] - On August 20, the closing price of the main contract 2510 was 1355.0, a decline of 1.33%, with a trading volume of 27,500 lots and an open interest of 51,700 lots, a decrease of 1072 lots from the previous day [5] Investment Strategies - Short - term strategy: The main contract is weak, and the far - month contract is strong. Risk - takers can try to go long lightly near 1300 for the 2510 contract and near 1750 for the 2512 contract. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [6] - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international situation turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [6] - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [6] Contract Adjustments - The daily price limit for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 18% [6] - The margin for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 28% [6] - The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2508 to 2606 is 100 lots [6]