有色金属数据日报-20250821

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views - For copper, recent macro - sentiment has been volatile, and the industry has weak supply and demand, but the downside of copper prices is limited [1]. - For aluminum, recent macro - sentiment is unstable, domestic downstream demand for aluminum is under pressure, inventory keeps rising, and aluminum prices may be weak [1]. - For zinc, the zinc social inventory increase suppresses zinc prices, but considering the squeeze risk in LME zinc, short - selling should be cautious [1]. - For nickel, domestic economic data declined in July, and short - term nickel prices fluctuate with the macro - situation. It is recommended to focus on short - term trading and selling at high prices [1]. Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - Price: LME copper futures price is 9705.5 dollars/ton with a - 0.05% change, and the spot price is 9621.5 dollars/ton with a - 0.3% change. SHFE copper futures price is 78790 dollars/ton with a - 0.52% change, and the spot price is 78640 dollars/ton with a - 0.32% change [1]. - Inventory: LME copper futures inventory is 156350 tons with a 0.77% change, and the SHFE copper futures inventory is 86361 tons with a 5.4% change [1]. - Analysis: Macro - wise, waiting for the Jackson Hole "Global Central Bank Annual Meeting", Powell's hawkish stance is expected to change little. Industrially, LME copper spot premium widens, import increases, and downstream demand is in the off - season with lower copper product开工率 [1]. Aluminum - Price: LME aluminum futures price is 1932 dollars/ton with a 0.36% change, and the spot price is 2567.5 dollars/ton with a - 0.6% change. SHFE aluminum futures price is 20500 dollars/ton with a - 0.63% change, and the spot price is 20535 dollars/ton with a - 0.05% change [1]. - Inventory: LME aluminum futures inventory is 479525 tons with a 0.00% change, and the SHFE aluminum futures inventory is 120653 tons with a 6.2% change [1]. - Analysis: Macro - wise, same as copper. Industrially, aluminum prices are high, consumption recovery is weak in the off - season, supply is sufficient, inventory keeps rising, and the spot turns to a discount [1]. Zinc - Price: LME zinc futures price is 2764.5 dollars/ton with a - 1.04% change, and the spot price is 2758 dollars/ton with a - 0.54% change. SHFE zinc futures price is 22150 dollars/ton with a - 0.14% change, and the spot price is 22265 dollars/ton with a 0.27% change [1]. - Inventory: LME zinc futures inventory is 71250 tons with a - 1.32% change, and the SHFE zinc futures inventory is 76803 tons with a 16.51% change [1]. - Analysis: Macro - wise, there are both positive and negative factors, and the expected September Fed rate cut supports the non - ferrous sector. Fundamentally, zinc production is recovering, demand is in the off - season but has resilience, social inventory is rising, and LME zinc inventory is decreasing with a squeeze risk [1]. Nickel - Price: LME nickel futures price is 14885 dollars/ton with a - 0.1% change, and the spot price is 15060 dollars/ton with a - 0.1% change. SHFE nickel futures price is 121170 dollars/ton with a - 0.71% change, and the spot price is 119930 dollars/ton with a - 0.33% change [1]. - Inventory: LME nickel futures inventory is 209346 tons with a 0.01% change, and the SHFE nickel futures inventory is 26962 tons [1]. - Analysis: Domestic economic data declined in July, macro - sentiment cools slightly. Pure nickel supply increases, social inventory rises, global nickel inventory is high, supply from Indonesia is stable, and demand is weak with an oversupply of primary nickel [1]. Tin - Price: LME tin futures price is 33995 dollars/ton with a 0.13% change, and the spot price is 33840 dollars/ton with a 0.36% change. SHFE tin futures price is 267500 dollars/ton with a 0.49% change, and the spot price is 267840 dollars/ton with a - 0.09% change [1]. - Inventory: LME tin futures inventory is 1715 tons with a 5.21% change, and the SHFE tin futures inventory is 7792 tons with a - 0.17% change [1].