玉米系数据日报-20250821

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The old - crop corn supply and demand is tightening, but there is significant warehouse receipt pressure. With the expected selling pressure during the autumn harvest of new - season corn and the reduction in planting costs, the C11 and C01 contracts are expected to maintain a low - level oscillation. Given that the channel inventory - building mentality this year is relatively more positive than last year, attention should be paid to the support of planting costs for the lower bound of the futures price [5][13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Spot Price Data - Corn Spot: On August 20th, the prices of various regions showed different trends. For example, the Jinzhou Port FOB price was 2260 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the Bayuquan Port FOB price was 2310 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Shekou Port market price was 2410 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [5]. - Corn Starch Spot: The price in Jilin Province was 2730 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Henan Province, it was 2436 yuan/ton, unchanged [5]. - Wheat Spot: In Anhui Province, the price was 2431 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; in Jiangsu Province, it was 2443 yuan/ton, unchanged [5]. 3.2 Futures盘面 Data - Corn Futures: The closing price of the corn main contract was 2242 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a spread of C09 - 01 at 77 [5]. - Corn Starch Futures: The closing price of the corn starch main contract was 2602 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a spread of CS09 - 01 at 48 [5]. 3.3 International Data - The closing price of US corn was 403.00 cents per bushel, the imported US corn duty - paid price was 2085.37 yuan/ton, the US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.18, and the estimated profit from importing US corn was 344.63 yuan/ton [5]. 3.4 Spread Data - The spread between starch and corn (main continuous) was 360, and the spread between starch and corn (Jilin spot average price) was 490 [5]. 3.5 Inventory Data - Port Inventory: The North Port corn inventory was 177.4 million tons, the Guangdong Port domestic - trade corn inventory was 74.8 million tons, and the Guangdong Port foreign - trade corn inventory was 0.3 million tons [5]. - Deep - processing Inventory: The deep - processing corn inventory in the Northeast was 192.1 million tons, and in North China, it was 93.9 million tons [5]. 3.6 Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: Residual grain is tightening, the volume of grain gathered at the North Port and the number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants in the morning are at a low level. The planting cost in the 2025/2026 season continues to decline, with the estimated gathering price at about 2000 - 2100 yuan/ton. The sown area is slightly decreasing, and the growth of new - season corn is currently good. Import policies for grains continue to impose restrictions, leading to a reduction in imported grain supply [5]. - Demand: In the short term, livestock and poultry are expected to maintain a high inventory, supporting feed demand. However, policy tends to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect long - term supply. The low wheat - corn price spread leads to a high proportion of wheat used as feed substitute in North China feed mills, and they maintain a cautious attitude towards corn procurement. Deep - processing downstream is in a loss, forcing the operating rate to decline to a low level, resulting in a reduction in deep - processing demand [5][13].