Haitong Securities International·2025-08-21 08:06Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [2][7][16] Core Views - The company demonstrated robust resilience in the first half of 2025, with a revenue of RMB 23.94 billion (+0.8% YoY) and a net profit of RMB 5.79 billion (+23.0% YoY) [4][13] - The beer business achieved volume and price growth, leading the industry in premiumization, with beer revenue of RMB 23.16 billion (+2.6% YoY) and sales volume of 6.487 million kiloliters (+2.2% YoY) [5][14] - The baijiu business is undergoing significant adjustments, with revenue declining to RMB 780 million (-33.7% YoY), prompting a strategic restructuring [6][15] Financial Performance Summary - The company reported a gross margin of 48.9% (+2.0 percentage points YoY) and a net margin of 24.2% (+4.4 percentage points YoY) in 1H25 [4][13] - Core EBIT reached RMB 7.11 billion (+11.3% YoY), with an EBITDA margin improvement of 3.1 percentage points to 34.8% [4][13] - The forecasted EPS for 2025-2027 is RMB 1.72, RMB 1.80, and RMB 1.91 respectively, with a target price maintained at HK$36 [2][16] Business Segment Analysis - The beer segment showed strong performance with a price per ton of RMB 3,570 (+0.4% YoY) and a significant increase in premium product sales [5][14] - The baijiu segment faced challenges due to government consumption restrictions, leading to a strategic shift towards more flexible pricing and product strategy adjustments [6][15] Market Position and Valuation - The company is positioned as the largest beer enterprise in China, with significant advantages in channels, costs, and brand recognition [7][16] - The current P/E ratio of 15 is below the industry average, indicating substantial valuation recovery potential [7][16]