原油库存骤降驱动短期利多，供需弱化延阻续涨动能

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Data is generally bullish, driving short - term oil price increases, but weakening supply - demand dynamics limit the rebound space. Brent futures rose 1.60% to above $66 last week, but faced significant pressure from the EMA50 resistance level on the technical side. In the medium term, OPEC+ accelerating production increases, the recovery of the number of US rigs to 412, and the delay of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations will suppress risk appetite. It is expected that WTI will maintain range - bound oscillations in the short term. An upward breakthrough requires further fermentation of geopolitical risk premiums, and the downside risk comes from India's actual diversion scale exceeding expectations and a sharp drop in refinery loads [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Inventory Situation Viewpoints - As of the week ending August 15, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 6.014 million barrels, a 1.41% decline, the largest single - week drop in three months. Cushing inventories increased by 419,000 barrels but remained within the five - year average range. Refinery operating rates unexpectedly rose to 96.6% (expected 95.7%), indicating that refineries are accelerating work to complete tasks before the summer maintenance. Net exports of refined oil products increased to 5.211 million barrels per day, a record high. The increase in exports and processing volume drove continuous inventory reduction, but the counter - seasonal increase in distillate inventories to 116 million barrels (+2.06%) reflects weak diesel demand [2] - US crude oil production jumped by 55,000 barrels per day to 1.3382 million barrels per day, the fastest growth rate in five months. The current supply contradiction lies in the export end: US weekly crude oil exports soared by 795,000 barrels to 4.372 million barrels per day, opening an arbitrage window for Asian buyers. Geopolitical events have strengthened alternative trade flows. The Trump administration plans to impose a 50% tariff on India, forcing India to adjust its procurement path. However, the Russian ambassador to India said that Russian oil remains irreplaceable with a 5% discount. Attention should be paid to the flow direction of India's crude oil from August to September. High - load refinery operations are not sustainable, and the equipment maintenance season will start in early September. Current profit compression may suppress restocking efforts [2] Weekly Data Tracking - WTI was at $63 on August 15, unchanged from August 8, with a - 0.33% change rate compared to July 25. US weekly crude oil production increased by 55,000 barrels per day to 13.382 million barrels per day, a 0.41% increase. The four - week average of US weekly net crude oil imports remained unchanged at 2.887 million barrels per day. US refinery crude oil processing volume (four - week average) increased by 28,000 barrels per day to 17.208 million barrels per day, a 0.16% increase. The US refinery weekly operating rate increased by 0.21% to 97%. US weekly net exports of refined oil products increased by 31,000 barrels per day to 5.211 million barrels per day, a 0.60% increase. US commercial crude oil inventories (excluding SPR) decreased by 6 million barrels to 421 million barrels, a 1.41% decline. US Cushing crude oil inventories (excluding SPR) increased by 1.82% to 23 million barrels. US strategic crude oil inventories remained unchanged at 403 million barrels. US gasoline inventories decreased by 3 million barrels to 224 million barrels, a 1.20% decline. US distillate inventories increased by 2 million barrels to 116 million barrels, a 2.06% increase. US aviation kerosene inventories decreased by 1.02% to 43 million barrels. US other oil product inventories (excluding ethanol) decreased by 0.04% to 326 million barrels [5] Appendix: Big - Model Inference Process - As of August 15, 2025, the reduction in US commercial crude oil inventories was much larger than expected, indicating a rapid de - stocking process, which is a potentially bullish factor. US crude oil weekly production increased by 55,000 barrels per day, the largest increase since March 2025, which may put pressure on the supply side. The refinery operating rate was higher than expected, indicating strong refining demand, which may explain the decline in inventories. Gasoline inventories declined more than expected, while distillate inventories increased, suggesting weak diesel demand or increased supply [53] - The four - week average of net imports remained unchanged, but single - week imports decreased by 1.218 million barrels, and exports soared to 4.372 million barrels per day, the highest since April, indicating strong export demand and supporting the decline in inventories. The US threat to impose tariffs on India may affect future supply - demand balance. The refinery maintenance season may affect processing volume, and long - term OPEC+ production increases and US production growth may bring pressure. Geopolitical factors and US election policy changes may also affect oil price trends [53][54]