永辉超市（601933）：改革处于阵痛期，等待拐点到来

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yonghui Supermarket (601933.SH) [1] Core Views - The company is undergoing a painful reform period, with expectations for a turning point to come [1] - Revenue for H1 2025 was 29.95 billion RMB, a year-on-year decline of 20.73%, with a net loss attributable to shareholders of 240 million RMB, an increase in loss of 516 million RMB compared to the same period last year [1][2] - The decline in revenue is primarily due to store closures and the adjustment of stores, with a significant number of long-term loss-making stores being shut down [2][3] Summary by Sections Performance Analysis - The overall sales scale has decreased, and the company is experiencing short-term gross margin decline due to supply chain reforms [2] - The gross margin for the reporting period was 20.80%, down 0.78% year-on-year [2] - The company closed 227 loss-making stores during the reporting period, incurring costs related to leasing, personnel compensation, and asset write-offs [2] Operational Strategy - The company is accelerating its supply chain reform, having signed contracts for bare procurement with 2,860 standard product suppliers and reducing the number of suppliers by approximately 50% [2] - The fresh food segment has increased the proportion of source procurement to over 60% [2] - The self-operated sales ratio in the cooked food processing segment increased from 40.2% to 78.1% [2] Store Opening and Closing - The company opened 93 adjusted stores in H1 2025, with a total of 124 adjusted stores by the end of June 2025 [3] - The total number of stores decreased to 552, with adjusted stores accounting for 22% [3] - It is expected that by the end of the year, adjusted stores will account for over 50%, potentially leading to a performance turning point [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 56.939 billion RMB, 97.996 billion RMB, and 111.198 billion RMB, with year-on-year changes of -15.74%, +72.11%, and +13.47% respectively [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be -426 million RMB, 1.291 billion RMB, and 1.805 billion RMB for the same period, with a significant recovery expected in 2026 [4] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of N/A for 2025, 35x for 2026, and 25x for 2027 [4]