原油、燃料油日报：EIA原油库存骤降，油价区间底部反弹-20250821

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term oil price is likely to remain in a volatile pattern. The supply side has formed a new balance between the increase in US exports and India's oil source switch, but the expansion of Russian oil discounts may stimulate non - US buyers to replenish stocks. On the demand side, the high refinery operating rate coexists with the differentiation of terminal refined oil consumption. The reduction of gasoline inventory supports the oil price, while the concern of diesel inventory accumulation limits the upside space. In the medium term, attention should be paid to the continuity of OPEC+ production policy and the autumn maintenance rhythm of Northern Hemisphere refineries [5]. - The crude oil market presents a mixed situation of long and short factors. On the supply side, the increase in US exports, the resumption of the Friendship Pipeline, and India's procurement structure adjustment may increase market supply, but Norway's stable production and OPEC+ production cuts still support oil prices. On the demand side, the high operating rate of US refineries and the recovery of crude oil demand support consumption, but the high distillate oil inventory indicates weak diesel demand. Inventory depletion is good but shows regional differentiation. The increase in Cushing inventory suppresses WTI, while the decline in commercial inventory provides support. Geopolitical risks and changes in trade flows increase market uncertainty. International oil prices are expected to maintain a volatile pattern [66]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 Crude Oil Futures Market Data Changes Analysis - On August 20, the SC crude oil main contract closed at 484.2 yuan/barrel, slightly down from the previous day. WTI and Brent closed at $62.0/barrel and $65.95/barrel respectively, continuing the weak consolidation. The SC - Brent spread widened to $1.47/barrel, and the SC - WTI spread widened to $5.42/barrel, indicating the continued valuation repair of domestic SC crude oil relative to international oil prices. The Brent - WTI spread rose to $3.95/barrel, and the tight supply pattern in the European market supported the Brent premium. The near - end contract of SC weakened, and the spread between consecutive 1 and consecutive 3 changed from +2.2 yuan/barrel the previous day to -3.7 yuan/barrel, showing the pressure of near - month delivery [2]. - The daily fluctuation range of the SC crude oil main contract narrowed to 481.9 - 488.1 yuan/barrel, and the closing price fell slightly by 0.87%, reflecting that the market trading sentiment tended to be cautious [2]. 3.1.2 Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - Supply side: Norway's crude oil production in July remained at 1.958 million barrels per day, and the production of non - OPEC+ countries was stable. The crude oil supply of the Friendship Pipeline to Hungary and Slovakia resumed, and the Eurasian land logistics disturbance was alleviated. Indian state - owned refineries reduced their purchases of Russian oil (a 19% month - on - month decrease in July) and turned to Middle Eastern and US oil sources, and the Russian oil export structure faced adjustment pressure. US crude oil exports are expected to rebound to more than 4 million barrels per day in August and September, and the discount of WTI relative to Middle Eastern oil stimulates Asian demand [3]. - Demand side: The operating rate of US refineries rose to 96.6% (previous value 96.4%), the demand for crude oil processing strengthened, and the derived demand for crude oil production jumped to 20.738 million barrels per day (previous value 19.813 million barrels). The operating rate of Japanese refineries rose to 86.9% (previous value 84.4%), but the commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 27,777 kiloliters, and the replenishment of gasoline and kerosene was active. Diesel demand showed fatigue, and the derived demand for US distillate oil production slightly decreased to 5.1193 million barrels per day (previous value 5.142 million barrels) [3]. - Inventory side: US commercial crude oil inventories plummeted by 6.014 million barrels (expected to decrease by 1.759 million barrels). The larger - than - expected decline was mainly due to a large decrease in imports of 1.218 million barrels and an increase in derived demand for production. Cushing inventories increased by 0.419 million barrels against the trend (previous value +0.045 million barrels), and inventory accumulation at the delivery location suppressed WTI. EIA data showed a significant reduction in US crude oil inventories, but the increase in Cushing inventories and the differentiation of refined oil inventories limited the rebound momentum of oil prices. The differentiation of refined oil inventories was significant. Gasoline inventories decreased by 2.72 million barrels more than expected, and refined oil inventories increased significantly by 2.343 million barrels, indicating weak diesel demand and the support of gasoline consumption by the summer travel season [4]. 3.1.3 Price Trend Judgment The short - term oil price may still maintain a volatile pattern. On the supply side, the increase in US exports and the switch of Indian oil sources form a new balance, but the expansion of Russian oil discounts may stimulate non - US buyers to replenish stocks. On the demand side, the high operating rate of refineries coexists with the differentiation of terminal refined oil consumption. The reduction of gasoline inventory provides support for the oil price, while the concern of diesel inventory accumulation limits the upside space. In the medium term, pay attention to the continuity of OPEC+ production policy and the autumn maintenance rhythm of Northern Hemisphere refineries [5]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring 3.2.1 Crude Oil - Futures prices: On August 20, 2025, the SC futures price was 482.80 yuan/barrel, down 1.40 yuan or -0.29% from the previous day; the WTI futures price was $62.84/barrel, up $0.84 or 1.35%; the Brent futures price was $67.04/barrel, up $1.09 or 1.65% [7]. - Spot prices: The OPEC basket price remained unchanged at $68.45/barrel. The Brent spot price increased by $0.02 to $67.64/barrel, the Oman spot price increased by $0.76 to $68.82/barrel, the Shengli spot price increased by $0.22 to $64.21/barrel, the Dubai spot price increased by $0.72 to $68.89/barrel, the ESPO spot price increased by $0.41 to $62.13/barrel, and the Duri spot price increased by $0.01 to $67.46/barrel [7]. - Spreads: The SC - Brent spread decreased from $1.47 to $0.21, a decrease of 85.71%; the SC - WTI spread decreased from $5.42 to $4.41, a decrease of 18.63%; the Brent - WTI spread increased from $3.95 to $4.20, an increase of 6.33%; the spread between SC consecutive and consecutive 3 decreased from -3.70 yuan/barrel to -4.20 yuan/barrel, a decrease of 13.51% [7]. - Other assets: The US dollar index decreased slightly by 0.04 to 98.22, a decrease of 0.04%; the S&P 500 index decreased by 15.59 points to 6,395.78, a decrease of 0.24%; the DAX index decreased by 146.10 points to 24,276.97, a decrease of 0.60%; the RMB exchange rate remained unchanged at 7.18 [7]. - Inventory and production data: US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 6.014 million barrels to 420.684 million barrels, a decrease of 1.41%; Cushing inventories increased by 0.419 million barrels to 23.47 million barrels, an increase of 1.82%; the US strategic reserve inventory increased by 0.0223 million barrels to 400.3425 million barrels, an increase of 0.06%; API inventories decreased by 2.417 million barrels to 450.796 million barrels, a decrease of 0.53%. The weekly operating rate of US refineries increased by 0.20 percentage points to 96.60%, an increase of 0.21%, and the crude oil processing volume of US refineries increased by 0.028 million barrels per day to 17.208 million barrels per day, an increase of 0.16% [7]. 3.2.2 Fuel Oil - Futures prices: The FU futures price was 2,718.00 yuan/ton, up 32.00 yuan or 1.19%; the LU futures price was 3,443.00 yuan/ton, down 23.00 yuan or -0.66%; the NYMEX fuel oil price remained unchanged at 225.67 cents/gallon [8]. - Spot prices: Most spot prices remained unchanged, while the high - sulfur 180: Singapore (near - month) price increased by $2.55 to $401.34/ton, and the Russian M100 CIF price decreased by $5.00 to $437.00/ton [8]. - Paper prices: The high - sulfur 380: Singapore (near - month) price increased by $2.30 to $388.59/ton [8]. - Spreads: The Singapore high - low sulfur spread data was missing; the Chinese high - low sulfur spread decreased by 55.00 yuan to 725.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.05%; the LU - Singapore FOB (0.5%S) spread decreased by 23.00 yuan to -1,968.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.18%; the FU - Singapore 380CST spread increased by 32.00 yuan to -1,938.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.62% [8]. - Platts prices: The Platts (380CST) price decreased by $14.30 to $387.97/ton, a decrease of 3.55%; the Platts (180CST) price decreased by $11.18 to $401.70/ton, a decrease of 2.71% [8]. - Inventory data: Singapore inventories decreased by 1.674 million tons to 24.645 million tons, a decrease of 6.36%. US distillate inventories (<15ppm) increased by 2.69 million barrels to 106,744.00 thousand barrels, an increase of 2.59%; US distillate inventories (15ppm - 500ppm) increased by 0.155 million barrels to 3,384.00 thousand barrels, an increase of 4.80%; US distillate inventories (>500ppm) decreased by 0.503 million barrels to 5,899.00 thousand barrels, a decrease of 7.86%; US distillate DOE inventories increased by 2.343 million barrels to 116,028.00 thousand barrels, an increase of 2.06%; US residue - containing DOE inventories increased by 0.077 million barrels to 19,809.00 thousand barrels, an increase of 0.39% [8]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretations 3.3.1 Supply - On August 20, the EIA put - into - production crude oil volume in the US for the week ending August 15 was 0.028 million barrels per day, down from the previous value of 0.056 million barrels per day. - The crude oil supply of the Friendship Pipeline to Hungary and Slovakia resumed. - Indian state - owned refineries reduced their purchases of Russian oil in July (a 19% month - on - month decrease), and will turn to Middle Eastern or US oil sources in August and September to replace Russian oil [3][10]. - US crude oil exports are expected to exceed 4 million barrels per day in August and September, reaching the highest level since the beginning of the year [14]. 3.3.2 Demand - For the week ending August 15 in the US, the EIA derived demand for distillate fuel oil production was 5.1193 million barrels per day, down from the previous value of 5.142 million barrels per day; the derived demand for motor gasoline production was 9.8616 million barrels per day, up from the previous value of 9.8247 million barrels per day; the derived demand for crude oil production was 20.738 million barrels per day, up from the previous value of 19.813 million barrels per day. - The EIA refinery utilization rate was 96.6%, higher than the expected 95.7% and the previous value of 96.4%. - The EIA refined oil imports were 0.074 million barrels per day, down from the previous value of 0.215 million barrels per day; the EIA refined oil production was 0.193 million barrels per day, up from the previous value of 0.032 million barrels per day; the EIA gasoline production was -0.259 million barrels per day, down from the previous value of 0.01 million barrels per day [11]. 3.3.3 Inventory - For the week ending August 15 in the US, the EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased by 0.0223 million barrels to 22.3 million barrels; Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 0.419 million barrels to 41.9 million barrels; refined oil inventories increased by 2.343 million barrels to 234.3 million barrels, higher than the expected 92.8 million barrels; gasoline inventories decreased by 2.72 million barrels to -272 million barrels, more than the expected decrease of 0.915 million barrels; heating oil inventories decreased by 0.503 million barrels to -50.3 million barrels; new - formula gasoline inventories remained unchanged at 0 million barrels; crude oil inventories decreased by 6.014 million barrels to -601.4 million barrels, more than the expected decrease of 1.759 million barrels [12]. - As of the week ending August 16, Japanese commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 27,777 kiloliters to 11,918,475 kiloliters, gasoline inventories increased by 31,339 kiloliters to 1,500,799 kiloliters, and kerosene inventories increased by 50,424 kiloliters to 2,496,963 kiloliters. The average operating rate of Japanese refineries was 86.9%, up from 84.4% the previous week [13]. - For the week ending August 15 in the US, API crude oil inventories decreased by 2.417 million barrels to 450.796 million barrels, more than the expected decrease of 1.587 million barrels [13]. 3.3.4 Market Information - After a sluggish summer, US crude oil exports have begun to rebound as US domestic refineries start preventive maintenance and the Trump administration threatens to impose tariffs on India for purchasing Russian oil. US exports in August and September are expected to exceed 4 million barrels per day, reaching the highest level since the beginning of the year. In Asia, WTI is cheaper than Middle Eastern crude oil, and sales in the next two weeks should continue to be boosted as traders start selling crude oil for October loading [14]. - As of the 2:30 close, the Shanghai gold main contract rose 0.52% to 777 yuan/gram, the Shanghai silver main contract rose 0.60% to 9,160 yuan/kilogram, and the SC crude oil main contract rose 0.95% to 487 yuan/barrel; in another closing data, the Shanghai gold main contract fell 0.36% to 773 yuan/gram, the Shanghai silver main contract fell 1.65% to 9,061 yuan/kilogram, and the SC crude oil main contract fell 0.87% to 481 yuan/barrel [14]. - The increase in India's purchases is due to the larger discount of Russian oil [14]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices and spreads of WTI and Brent first - line contracts, the SC - WTI spread statistics, US weekly crude oil production, US and Canadian oil rig counts (Baker Hughes), OPEC crude oil production, global regional oil rig counts (Baker Hughes), US refinery weekly operating rates, US refinery crude oil processing