瑞达期货不锈钢产业日报-20250821

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Recently, the price of ferronickel has dropped significantly, weakening the support of raw material costs. The production profit of steel mills has improved notably. Due to the increase in steel prices and the relatively weak increase in raw material costs, the steel mill output is expected to increase in August. At the demand - end, as the traditional off - season for downstream consumption is coming to an end, there is an optimistic expectation for the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October". Coupled with the favorable domestic fiscal investment policies, anti - involution measures are expected to improve the supply - demand pattern. The market's purchasing willingness has recovered, and the previously积压 orders have been released. Meanwhile, holders have a high willingness to sell, the domestic market maintains a de - stocking trend, and the spot premium remains stable. Technically, the decline in positions and prices weakens the bullish sentiment, and attention should be paid to the support of MA60. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 12,795 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan; the spread between the 09 - 10 contracts of stainless steel is - 65 yuan/ton, unchanged; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders of stainless steel is - 10,049 lots, an increase of 135 lots; the position of the main contract of stainless steel is 138,810 lots; the warehouse receipt quantity of stainless steel is 118,640 tons, a decrease of 1,129 tons [2] 3.2现货市场 - The price of 304/2B coil (trimmed edge) in Wuxi is 13,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,650 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the SS main contract is 400 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly ferronickel output is 22,200 metal tons, a decrease of 400 metal tons; the monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,215.27 tons, a decrease of 472.3 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 1.0414 million tons, an increase of 193,200 tons; the spot price of SMM1 nickel is 121,100 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan; the average price of ferronickel (7 - 10%) nationwide is 930 yuan/nickel point, unchanged; the monthly chromite output in China is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2] 3.4产业情况 - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.6981 million tons, a decrease of 45,900 tons; the weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 582,700 tons, a decrease of 10,200 tons; the monthly export volume of stainless steel is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2] 3.5下游情况 - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 352.06 million square meters, an increase of 48.4168 million square meters; the monthly output of excavators is 26,800 units, an increase of 1,000 units; the monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 21,700 units, a decrease of 2,900 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 10,000 units, a decrease of 1,000 units [2] 3.6行业消息 - The minutes of the Fed's July meeting showed that most people think inflation is a higher risk than employment and sent a hawkish signal. Most policymakers believe the upside risk of inflation exceeds the downside risk of employment, but some think the risks are balanced, and two think employment risk is more prominent. The National Energy Administration released that the total electricity consumption in July reached 1.02 trillion kilowatt - hours, a year - on - year increase of 8.6%. At the raw material end, the Indonesian government's PNBP policy has restricted issuance, increasing the supply cost of nickel resources. However, the ferronickel production capacity in Indonesia is being released faster, and the output has rebounded significantly [2]