Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-21 09:00Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The Fed's July meeting minutes signaled a hawkish stance, with most believing inflation risk outweighs employment risk. In the tin market, despite Myanmar's restart of mining permit approvals, actual tin ore output will not occur until the fourth quarter, and the Congo's Bisie mine plans to resume production in phases. Currently, tin ore processing fees remain at historical lows. On the smelting side, production rebounded in July due to multiple factors, but raw material shortages are still severe in Yunnan, and the scrap recycling system in Jiangxi is under pressure with low operating rates. On the demand side, downstream processing enterprises are in the traditional off - season, with most maintaining only essential production and orders being mediocre. Recently, tin prices have fluctuated, with downstream enterprises making essential purchases at low prices. Domestic and LME inventories are on a downward trend. Technically, positions are decreasing, and both bulls and bears are cautious, expecting range - bound oscillations. It is recommended to wait and see, focusing on the 266,000 - 271,000 yuan/ton range [3]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Tin was 266,480 yuan/ton, down 1,360 yuan. The closing price of the September - October contract was down 240 yuan. LME 3 - month tin was at 33,770 US dollars/ton, up 68 US dollars. The main contract's open interest of Shanghai Tin was 18,744 lots, down 633 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures was - 1,514 lots, down 642 lots. LME tin total inventory was 1,630 tons, down 25 tons. Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin was 7,792 tons, down 13 tons, and the warehouse receipt was down 25 tons [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The SMM 1 tin spot price was 266,800 yuan/ton, down 184 - 700 yuan. The Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price was 268,410 yuan/ton, up 2,300 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 320 yuan/ton, up 660 yuan. The LME tin premium (0 - 3) was 81 US dollars/ton, down 8 US dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates was 1.21 million tons, down 0.29 million tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate processing fee was 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of 40% tin concentrate was 254,000 yuan/ton, down 2,000 yuan, and the average price of 60% tin concentrate was 258,000 yuan/ton, down 2,000 yuan. The average price of 60% tin concentrate processing fee was 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin was 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons. The monthly import volume of refined tin was 3,762.32 tons, up 143.24 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu was 173,830 yuan/ton, up 460 yuan. The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) was 1.6014 million tons, up 0.1445 million tons. The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets was 140,700 tons, down 33,900 tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that most thought inflation risk was higher than employment risk, sending a hawkish signal. The National Energy Administration announced that the total electricity consumption in July was 1.02 trillion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 8.6%. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments will further standardize the competition order in the photovoltaic industry and curb low - price disorderly competition [3].