Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-21 08:56Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The import volume of zinc mines at home and abroad has increased, the processing fees for zinc mines have continued to rise, and the sulfuric acid price has increased significantly, leading to further restoration of smelter profits and increased production enthusiasm. With the release of new production capacities and the resumption of previously overhauled capacities, the supply growth has accelerated. The import loss has continued to widen, resulting in a decline in the inflow of imported zinc. On the demand side, the downstream has entered the off - season, and the operating rate of processing enterprises has decreased year - on - year. Recently, the zinc price has declined, and downstream enterprises mainly purchase on demand at low prices, but the overall trading remains dull. The domestic social inventory has continued to increase, and the spot premium has declined. The LME inventory overseas has decreased significantly, and the LME spot premium has been adjusted downward, which may weaken the support for the domestic zinc price. Technically, the price has adjusted at a low position of open interest, breaking below the MA60. Attention should be paid to the support at 22,000. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct range trading [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc contract is 22,240 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the 09 - 10 contract spread of Shanghai zinc is 20 yuan/ton, unchanged; the LME three - month zinc quotation is 2,770 dollars/ton, down 7 dollars; the total open interest of Shanghai zinc is 216,150 lots, an increase of 1,551 lots; the net open interest of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is - 4,802 lots, an increase of 1,178 lots; the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 32,288 tons, unchanged; the SHFE inventory is 76,803 tons, an increase of 10,886 tons; the LME inventory is 72,200 tons, a decrease of 3,650 tons [3]. 现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,230 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 21,980 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the basis of the main ZN contract is - 10 yuan/ton, an increase of 85 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 10.26 dollars/ton, down 1.61 dollars; the arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 16,940 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,850 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, a decrease of 104,100 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons, an increase of 10,400 tons; the global zinc mine production of ILZSG is 1.0075 million tons, a decrease of 4,300 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 628,000 tons, an increase of 45,000 tons; the zinc mine import volume is 455,900 tons, an increase of 124,900 tons [3]. Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 35,156.02 tons, a decrease of 22,615.39 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 483.88 tons, an increase of 266.83 tons; the zinc social inventory is 1.149 million tons, an increase of 49,000 tons [3]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the monthly sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons; the monthly new housing construction area is 352.06 million square meters, an increase of 48.4168 million square meters; the monthly housing completion area is 250.34 million square meters, an increase of 24.6739 million square meters; the monthly automobile production is 2.51 million vehicles, down 298,600 vehicles; the monthly air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, an increase of 3.4764 million units [3]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options on zinc is 14.06%, an increase of 0.93%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options on zinc is 14.06%, an increase of 0.93%; the 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 5.1%, down 0.28%; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 13.35%, an increase of 0.18% [3]. Industry News - The minutes of the Fed's July meeting showed that most people thought inflation was a higher risk than employment and sent a hawkish signal. Most policymakers believed that the upside risk of inflation exceeded the downside risk of employment, but some thought the risks were balanced, and two thought the employment risk was more prominent. The National Energy Administration released the total social electricity consumption in July, which reached 1.02 trillion kilowatt - hours, a year - on - year increase of 8.6%. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments will further standardize the competition order in the photovoltaic industry and curb low - price disorderly competition [3].