Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-21 09:00Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - On August 21, the RB2510 contract decreased with reduced positions. Under the background of weak demand in the off - season, downstream buyers mainly purchase on - demand. The weekly output of rebar continues to decline, and inventory continues to increase due to the impact of high - temperature and rainy weather on demand. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2510 contract shows that DIFF and DEA rebound at a low level. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading and pay attention to rhythm and risk control [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - RB main contract closing price is 3,121.00 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan; position volume is 1,458,111 lots, down 65,281 lots; the net position of the top 20 in RB contracts is - 102,201 lots, down 15,883 lots; the RB10 - 1 contract spread is - 79 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; RB Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 137,310 tons, up 9,965 tons; the HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread is 254 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan [2] Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) is 3,330.00 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; (actual weight) is 3,415 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. In Guangzhou (theoretical weight), it is 3,310.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. In Tianjin (theoretical weight), it is 3,280.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The RB main contract basis is 209.00 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan; the spot price difference between hot - rolled coil and rebar in Hangzhou is 140.00 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fine ore in Qingdao Port is 771.00 yuan/wet ton, up 9.00 yuan; the price of quasi - first - class metallurgical coke in Hebei (market price) is 1,535.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) is 2,300.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billet in Hebei is 3,020.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The inventory of iron ore in 45 ports is 138.1927 million tons, up 1.07 million tons; the inventory of coke in sample coking plants is 39.05 million tons, down 53,100 tons; the inventory of coke in sample steel mills is 609.78 million tons, down 95,200 tons; the inventory of billets in Tangshan is 112.52 million tons, down 28,400 tons [2] Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 83.57%, down 0.20%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 90.24%, up 0.17%. The output of rebar in sample steel mills is 2.1465 million tons, down 58,000 tons; the capacity utilization rate of rebar in sample steel mills is 47.05%, down 1.28%. The inventory of rebar in sample steel mills is 1.7453 million tons, up 22,700 tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities is 4.3251 million tons, up 175,800 tons. The operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills is 71.88%, unchanged. The domestic crude steel output is 79.66 million tons, down 3.53 million tons; the monthly output of rebar in China is 16.58 million tons, up 1.4 million tons; the net export volume of steel is 939,000 tons, up 18,000 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index is 93.34, down 0.25; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment is 1.60%, down 1.20%. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment is - 12.00%, down 0.80; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment is 3.20%, down 1.40. The cumulative value of housing construction area is 638.731 million square meters, down 54.1 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area is 35.206 million square meters, down 48.42 million square meters; the inventory of commercial housing for sale is 40.536 million square meters, up 2.85 million square meters [2] Industry News - On August 21st, Mysteel reported that the actual weekly output of rebar was 2.1465 million tons, down 58,000 tons; the inventory in steel mills was 1.7453 million tons, up 22,700 tons; the social inventory was 4.3251 million tons, up 175,800 tons; the total inventory was 6.0704 million tons, up 198,500 tons; the apparent demand was 1.948 million tons, up 48,600 tons. This week, the capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines was 85.2%, up 1.5%. The daily output of raw coal was 1.912 million tons, up 33,000 tons; the inventory of raw coal was 4.716 million tons, up 15,000 tons; the daily output of clean coal was 771,000 tons, up 7,000 tons; the inventory of clean coal was 2.756 million tons, up 180,000 tons [2]