Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-21 09:14Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Domestic demand for urea is weak, and although some urea enterprises' inventories decline due to export orders and malfunctions, overall enterprise inventories are still on the rise. Short - term export news is favorable for reducing urea enterprise inventories, but due to enterprise purchase restrictions and slow - rising domestic demand, the decline in urea enterprise inventories may be limited. The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1745 - 1800 yuan/ton in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1764 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread is - 27 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the main contract position is 205,717 lots, down 2,892 lots; the top 20 net positions are - 36,183 lots, down 1,133 lots; and the exchange warehouse receipts are 3,573 lots, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, prices in Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, and Anhui increased by 30 - 40 yuan/ton, while the price in Shandong decreased by 10 yuan/ton. The FOB prices in the Baltic and China's main ports remained unchanged at 450 US dollars/ton. The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is - 4 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2]. Industry Situation - Port inventory is 46.4 tons, down 1.9 tons; enterprise inventory is 102.39 tons, up 6.65 tons. The urea enterprise operating rate is 83.22%, up 1.24 percentage points; the daily urea output is 192,700 tons, up 2,900 tons. The urea export volume is 57 tons, up 50 tons; the monthly urea output is 6,052,080 tons, up 20,740 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 43.48%, up 1.98 percentage points; the melamine operating rate is 49.82%, down 11.28 percentage points. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer in China is 116 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan; the weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea is - 78 yuan/ton, up 266 yuan. The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 422.12 tons, up 5.3 tons; the weekly output of melamine is 24,800 tons, down 5,500 tons [2]. Industry News - As of August 20, China's total urea enterprise inventory was 102.39 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.65 tons or 6.95%. As of August 21, China's urea port inventory was 50.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.7 tons or 7.97%. As of August 21, China's urea production was 136.11 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.25 tons or 0.93%, and the capacity utilization rate was 83.99%, a week - on - week increase of 0.77% [2]. Suggestions - Pay attention to Longzhong's enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate on Thursday [2].