Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-21 09:07Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Core Views - For corn, due to the increase in US corn production and ending stocks by USDA, international corn prices are dragged down. In the domestic market, with new grains to be listed in September in the Northeast production area, the supply is relatively loose, demand support is limited, and the spot price is under pressure. The corn market remains in a weak trend and should be treated with a bearish mindset [2] - For corn starch, as previously shutdown enterprises resume production, the industry's operating rate has rebounded, increasing supply - side pressure. Meanwhile, downstream demand is in the off - season, resulting in a significant oversupply situation. The starch market also shows a weak trend and should be treated with a bearish mindset [3] Summary by Directory Futures Market - Corn futures closing price (active contract) is 2166 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; corn starch futures closing price (active contract) is 2484 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. Corn futures持仓量 (active contract) is 949895 hands, up 12659 hands; corn starch futures持仓量 (active contract) is 200843 hands, up 6844 hands [2] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders for corn is - 91084 hands, up 11036 hands; for corn starch, it is - 21149 hands, up 1645 hands [2] - The registered warehouse receipt volume of yellow corn is 105851 hands, down 4924 hands; that of corn starch is 7450 hands, unchanged [2] - The CS - C spread of the main contract is 366 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan [2] Outer - market - CBOT corn futures closing price (active contract) is 403 cents/bushel, down 3.5 cents; CBOT corn total position (weekly) is 1549876 contracts, down 67625 contracts [2] - CBOT corn non - commercial net long position (weekly) is - 133174 contracts, down 25206 contracts [2] Spot Market - The average spot price of corn is 2384.71 yuan/ton, down 6.66 yuan; the factory - quoted price of corn starch in Changchun is 2710 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The f.o.b. price of corn in Jinzhou Port is 2260 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the factory - quoted price of corn starch in Weifang is 2950 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The CIF price of imported corn is 1927.58 yuan/ton, up 0.11 yuan; the international freight of imported corn is 45 dollars/ton, unchanged [2] - The basis of the corn main contract is 214.71 yuan/ton, down 6.66 yuan; the basis of the corn starch main contract is 221 yuan/ton, up 74 yuan [2] Substitute Spot Prices - The average spot price of wheat is 2436.5 yuan/ton, down 1.06 yuan; the spread between tapioca starch and corn starch (weekly) is 138 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan [2] - The spread between corn starch and 30 - powder is - 12 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The predicted annual corn production in the US is 398.93 million tons, down 2.92 million tons; the predicted sown area in the US is 35.12 million hectares, down 0.25 million hectares [2] - The predicted annual corn production in Brazil is 131 million tons, unchanged; the predicted sown area in Brazil is 22.6 million hectares, unchanged [2] - The predicted annual corn production in Argentina is 53 million tons, unchanged; the predicted sown area in Argentina is 7.5 million hectares, unchanged [2] - The predicted annual corn production in China is 295 million tons, unchanged; the predicted sown area in China is 44.3 million hectares, unchanged [2] - The predicted annual corn production in Ukraine is 30.5 million tons, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The corn inventory in southern ports (weekly) is 75.1 tons, down 14.5 tons; the deep - processing corn inventory (weekly) is 340.2 tons, down 24.1 tons [2] - The corn inventory in northern ports (weekly) is 247 tons, down 22 tons; the weekly inventory of starch enterprises (weekly) is 133.9 tons, up 0.7 tons [2] - The monthly import volume of corn is 6 tons, down 10 tons; the monthly export volume of corn starch is 14.5 tons, down 13.28 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed is 2937.7 tons, up 175.6 tons; the processing profit of corn starch in Shandong is - 110 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan [2] - The sample feed corn inventory days (weekly) is 29.61 days, down 0.83 days; the processing profit of corn starch in Hebei is - 70 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan [2] - The deep - processing corn consumption (weekly) is 114.06 tons, down 2.4 tons; the processing profit of corn starch in Jilin is - 46 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The operating rate of alcohol enterprises (weekly) is 42%, down 1.08%; the operating rate of starch enterprises (weekly) is 52.3%, down 3.6% [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 5.87%, down 0.05%; the 60 - day historical volatility of corn is 5.86%, down 0.02% [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn is 9.11%, down 0.35%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for corn is 9.11%, down 0.34% [2] Industry News - Based on a sample survey of 179 farmlands, the expected corn yield per acre in Indiana is 193.82 bushels, higher than last year's 187.54 bushels/acre and the three - year average of 182.09 bushels/acre, reaching the highest level since 2003 [2] - Based on 336 samples, the expected corn yield per acre in Nebraska this year is 179.50 bushels, higher than 173.25 bushels/acre in the 2024 survey and the three - year average of 166.33 bushels/acre, reaching the highest level since 2021 [2] Key Focus - Pay attention to mysteel's weekly corn consumption, starch enterprise operating rate and inventory on Thursday and Friday [3]