Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-21 09:14Report Information - Report Title: Shanghai Lead Industry Daily Report 2025-08-21 [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core View - The overall supply of Shanghai lead continues to be flat, demand gradually increases, and with the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, it is recommended to go long on lead prices at low levels [3] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract is 16,745 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 20 yuan; the LME 3-month lead quote is 1,973.5 US dollars/ton, with an increase of 2.5 US dollars [3] - The price difference between the 09-10 contracts of Shanghai lead is -15 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 5 yuan; the trading volume of Shanghai lead is 96,382 lots, with an increase of 3,663 lots [3] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is -2,021 lots, with a decrease of 637 lots; the warehouse receipts of Shanghai lead are 59,422 tons, with a decrease of 1,481 tons [3] - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 64,844 tons, with an increase of 2,510 tons; the LME lead inventory is 282,950 tons, with an increase of 22,475 tons [3] Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead on the Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network is 16,675 yuan/ton, with an increase of 75 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Nonferrous Metals Market is 16,770 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 120 yuan [3] - The basis of the lead main contract is -70 yuan/ton, with an increase of 55 yuan; the LME lead premium (0-3) is -41.8 US dollars/ton, with an increase of 2.2 US dollars [3] - The price of lead concentrate 50%-60% in Jiyuan is 16,104 yuan, with a decrease of 50 yuan; the price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) is 16,570 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 90 yuan [3] Upstream Situation - The average operating rate of primary lead is 73.25%, with a decrease of 2.4 percentage points; the output of primary lead this week is 35,300 tons, with an increase of 1,500 tons [3] - The processing fee of lead concentrate 60% at major ports is -70 US dollars/kiloton, with a decrease of 10 US dollars; the lead supply and demand balance of ILZSG is 16,400 tons, with an increase of 48,800 tons [3] - The global lead ore output of ILZSG is 399,700 tons, with a decrease of 3,700 tons; the lead ore import volume is 119,700 tons, with an increase of 24,800 tons [3] Industry Situation - The refined lead import volume is 815.37 tons, with a decrease of 1,021.76 tons; the average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate is 540 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - The refined lead export volume is 2,109.62 tons, with an increase of 223.33 tons; the average market price of waste batteries is 10,083.93 yuan/ton, with an increase of 25 yuan [3] Downstream Situation - The export volume of lead-acid batteries is 41.45 million pieces, with a decrease of 425,000 pieces; the average price of lead-antimony alloy (for lead-acid batteries, containing 2% antimony) is 19,900 yuan/ton, with an increase of 50 yuan [3] - The Shenwan industry index of the battery industry is 2,017.67 points, with a decrease of 23.68 points; the automobile output is 2.51 million vehicles, with a decrease of 298,600 vehicles [3] - The new energy vehicle output is 1.647 million vehicles, with an increase of 73,000 vehicles [3] Industry News - Trump's camp calls for an investigation into Fed Governor Cook, and Cook refuses to resign [3] - The Fed's July meeting minutes show that most officials believe it is appropriate to keep interest rates unchanged [3] - Israel decides not to respond to the ceasefire plan for the time being, and the Israeli military has entered the first stage of the planned attack on Gaza City [3] - Russia does not accept NATO's so-called "peacekeeping force" in Ukraine [3] View Summary - The output of primary lead fluctuates slightly, and the supply of recycled lead shows regional differences. The supply of waste battery raw materials is tight, and the overall supply is tight [3] - Anhui's sewage inspection affects local recycled lead production, increasing supply uncertainty [3] - The demand for lead is mainly concentrated in the lead-acid battery field. Although the traditional peak season is approaching, the actual demand has not increased significantly and is still in the stage of slow recovery [3] - The inventory has decreased slightly recently, indicating an improvement in overall demand. The lead-acid battery industry is about to enter the peak season, and demand is expected to gradually strengthen, supporting lead prices [3]