Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-21 09:12Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The current bond market lacks a new main - line driver. The strengthening of the equity market has significantly increased market risk appetite, suppressing bond market sentiment, especially increasing the selling pressure on the ultra - long end of interest - rate bonds and widening the spread between long - and short - term yields. The "stock - strong, bond - weak" linkage effect has intensified. In the short term, liquidity factors may become the core logic guiding bond market trading. The issuance of new 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bonds on August 22 may trigger a switch of the CTD bonds for far - month contracts under the policy of levying VAT on interest from interest - rate bonds. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of the widening of the inter - period spread brought by the issuance of new bonds [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market a. Futures Prices and Volumes - T主力收盘价108.000，环比上涨0.06%，成交量63938，环比增加11704；TF主力收盘价105.450，环比上涨0.06%，成交量38506，环比减少16805；TS主力收盘价102.326，环比持平，成交量36357，环比增加5932；TL主力收盘价116.110，环比上涨0.34%，成交量62804，环比减少37112 [2] b. Futures Spreads - Multiple futures spreads showed changes, such as the TL2512 - 2509 spread increasing by 0.05 to - 0.46, while the T12 - TL12 spread decreasing by 0.42 to - 8.11 [2] c. Futures Positions - T主力持仓量57904，环比减少11640；TF主力持仓量50434，环比减少12248；TS主力持仓量35544，环比减少7131；TL主力持仓量40766，环比减少7308. The net short positions of different contracts also had corresponding changes [2] 2. Bond Market a. CTD Bonds - The net prices of several CTD bonds changed, with most showing a decline, such as 2500802.IB (6y) dropping to 98.8632, a decrease of 0.1253 [2] b. Active Treasury Bonds - The yields of active treasury bonds with different maturities changed, with the yields of 3y, 5y, 7y, and 10y increasing by 0.50bp, 1.25bp, 1.75bp, and 1.40bp respectively, while the 1y yield remained unchanged [2] c. Short - term Interest Rates - Short - term interest rates such as silver - pledged overnight and Shibor overnight decreased, while the silver - pledged 14 - day rate remained unchanged [2] d. LPR Rates - The 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates remained unchanged at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively [2] 3. Public Market Operations - The issuance scale of open - market operations was 2530 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 1287 billion yuan, and the interest rate was 1.4% for 7 days [2] 4. Industry News - From January to July, the national general public budget revenue was 13583.9 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. The stamp duty was 255.9 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 20.7%, and the securities trading stamp duty was 93.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 62.5%. The August LPR quotation remained stable. The yields of treasury bonds strengthened on Thursday, and the treasury futures also showed an upward trend. Domestically, economic data in July showed a mixed performance, and overseas, the Sino - US tariff suspension period was extended by 90 days, and the Fed's July meeting minutes showed a hawkish monetary policy [2] 5. Key Events to Watch - On August 21 at 21:00, the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending August 16 was to be released. On August 22 at 22:00, Fed Chairman Powell will speak at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting [3]