Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-21 09:03Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report [2] Report's Core View - The international raw sugar price will experience short - term low - level wide - range fluctuations. In the domestic market, the window for extra - quota profit remains open, leading to a significant increase in sugar imports in July. Beet sugar will start being squeezed in September, increasing supply. The demand is expected to rise due to the summer and upcoming double - festival stocking. The inventory pressure is not significant, but the de - stocking process has slowed down. The new - season sugar production is expected to remain at a high level in the past four years. Overall, the domestic market will show short - term fluctuations, and the operation suggestion is to wait and see [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main sugar futures contract is 5688 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan; the main contract's open interest is 358,685 lots, up 14,946 lots; the number of sugar warehouse receipts is 15,751, down 493; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 19,655 lots, down 1995 lots; the total number of valid warehouse receipt forecasts is 1, unchanged [2] 现货市场 - The estimated import - processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4491 yuan/ton, down 43 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 4509 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan. The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5706 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 5729 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan. The spot price of white sugar in Kunming is 5855 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Nanning is 5970 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Liuzhou is 6030 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop planting area is 1480 thousand hectares, up 60 thousand hectares; the sugar - cane planting area in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, down 12.86 thousand hectares [2] Industry Situation - The cumulative national sugar production is 1116.21 million tons, up 5.49 million tons; the cumulative national sugar sales volume is 811.38 million tons, up 86.92 million tons. The national industrial sugar inventory is 304.83 million tons, down 81.43 million tons; the national sugar sales rate is 72.69%, up 7.47 percentage points. The monthly sugar import volume is 740,000 tons, up 320,000 tons; the total monthly sugar exports from Brazil are 359.37 million tons, up 23.47 million tons [2] Downstream Situation - The cumulative year - on - year increase in refined sugar production is 16.7%, up 2.6 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year increase in soft - drink production is 2.9%, down 0.1 percentage point [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 8.09%, down 0.16 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options is 8.06%, down 0.2 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 8.57%, up 0.27 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.38%, up 0.05 percentage points [2] Industry News - As of the week ending August 20, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 70, down from 76 the previous week. On Wednesday, the ICE October raw sugar contract rose 1.72%. On Thursday, the SR2601 sugar contract rose 0.51% [2]