瑞达期货铁矿石产业链日报-20250821

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - On Thursday, the I2601 contract rose and then pulled back. Macroscopically, US Treasury Secretary Bezant said on the 19th local time that the US and China had a "very good dialogue" on economic and trade issues. In terms of supply and demand, the shipment and arrival volumes of Australian and Brazilian iron ore increased this period, and domestic port inventories continued to rise. The blast furnace operating rate of steel mills remained high, and pig iron production increased slightly, with the daily average output remaining above 2.4 million tons. Overall, the firm spot prices support the futures price, but the terminal demand is for on - demand procurement, which restricts the upward space. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2601 contract shows that DIFF and DEA rebounded from low levels. Operationally, short - term trading is recommended, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract was 772.50 yuan/ton, up 3.50 yuan; the position volume was 451,574 lots, up 11,185 lots. The spread between the I 9 - 1 contracts was 18.5 yuan/ton, up 1.50 yuan. The net position of the top 20 in the I contract was 8,234 lots, up 1,736 lots. The number of warehouse receipts on the Dalian Commodity Exchange was 2,000 lots, unchanged. The quote of the Singapore iron ore main contract at 15:00 was 101.2 US dollars/ton, up 0.45 US dollars [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 837 yuan/dry ton, up 5 yuan; the price of 60.8% Mac fines was 823 yuan/dry ton, up 5 yuan. The price of 56.5% Super Special fines at Jingtang Port was 703 yuan/dry ton, up 2 yuan. The basis of the I main contract (Mac fines dry ton - main contract) was 50 yuan, up 2 yuan. The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) was 100.60 US dollars/ton, down 0.15 US dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to Qingdao Port 60.8% Mac fines was 3.42, unchanged. The estimated import cost was 825 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - The global iron ore shipment volume (weekly) was 3,406.60 million tons, up 359.90 million tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China (weekly) was 2,703.10 million tons, up 131.50 million tons. The iron ore inventory at 47 ports (weekly) was 14,381.57 million tons, up 114.30 million tons. The iron ore inventory of sample steel mills (weekly) was 9,136.40 million tons, up 123.06 million tons. The iron ore import volume (monthly) was 10,462.00 million tons, down 133.00 million tons. The available days of iron ore (weekly) were 23 days, up 5 days. The daily output of 266 mines (weekly) was 41.18 million tons, up 2.34 million tons. The operating rate of 266 mines (weekly) was 64.98%, up 3.02 percentage points. The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines (weekly) was 34.60 million tons, down 2.00 million tons. The BDI index was 1,927.00, down 37.00. The freight rate of iron ore from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was 23.73 US dollars/ton, down 0.53 US dollars; the freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao was 9.18 US dollars/ton, down 0.35 US dollars [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 83.57%, down 0.20 percentage points. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 90.24%, up 0.17 percentage points. The domestic crude steel output (monthly) was 7,966 million tons, down 353 million tons [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) was 17.18%, up 0.17 percentage points. The 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) was 19.51%, up 0.01 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options (daily) was 16.76%, down 1.75 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options (daily) was 18.19%, down 1.24 percentage points [2] 3.6 Industry News - From August 11th to August 17th, 2025, the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2,703.1 million tons, up 131.5 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports was 2,476.6 million tons, up 94.7 million tons; the arrival volume at six northern ports was 1,252.5 million tons, up 49.5 million tons [2] 3.7 Key Points of Attention - Pay attention to the domestic iron ore port inventory, blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of steel mills on Friday [2]