Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - The spot inventory of apples is low, which strongly supports prices. However, as the listing volume of Gala apples gradually increases, the price increase rhythm is constrained, and the market will operate with short - term fluctuations. It is recommended to conduct range trading and pay attention to the coloring and listing of early - maturing apples [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the October apple contract is 8,103 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 39; the holding volume of the main contract is 76,448 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 5,066; the number of apple warehouse receipts is 0; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 970 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 357 [2] Spot Market - The spot price of apples in Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bagged grade - II fruit from growers, above 80) is 4 yuan/jin; in Gansu Jingning (paper - bagged above 75) is 4 yuan/jin; in Shandong Yiyuan (paper - bagged above 75) is 2.3 yuan/jin; in Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bagged semi - commercial products above 70) is 4 yuan/jin [2] Upstream Situation - The annual national apple output is 5,128.51 million tons; the weekly apple wholesale price is 9.66 yuan/kg, a week - on - week decrease of 0.03; the weekly average wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.48 yuan/kg, a week - on - week decrease of 0.03 [2] Industry Situation - The total national apple cold - storage inventory is 46.01 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7.38; the weekly storage capacity ratio of apples in Shandong is 0.08, a week - on - week decrease of 0.01; in Shaanxi is 0.02, unchanged; the monthly apple export volume is 50,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons; the monthly apple export value is 63.284 million US dollars; the monthly import value of fresh and dried fruits and nuts is 19.976 million US dollars; the weekly profit of first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apple storage merchants is 0.4 yuan/jin, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1 [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly average wholesale price of tangerines is 10.11 yuan/kg, a week - on - week decrease of 0.04; the weekly wholesale price of watermelons is 3.54 yuan/kg, a week - on - week decrease of 0.14; the weekly wholesale price of bananas is 5.75 yuan/kg, a week - on - week decrease of 0.13; the weekly early - morning average daily arrival volume of trucks at the Guangdong Jiangmen wholesale market is 7.6, a week - on - week decrease of 0.8; at the Guangdong Xiaqiao wholesale market is 9.6, a week - on - week decrease of 1.4; at the Guangdong Chalong wholesale market is 15, a week - on - week decrease of 1 [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 17.3%, a day - on - day decrease of 2.91; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for apples is 17.3%, a day - on - day decrease of 2.91 [2] Industry News - On August 21, 2025, the supply volume of Gala apples in the western production areas increased steadily, with overall poor quality, small fruit sizes, and few high - quality products. Prices showed a significant polarization, and the market was stable but weak. In the Shandong production area, there was still pressure in the trading of inventory apples. Cold - storage operators and fruit growers continued to actively dispose of inventory, and the transaction prices remained stable but weak, with transactions concluded through negotiation. On Thursday, the apple 2510 contract rose 0.20%. According to Mysteel's preliminary statistics based on bagging volume survey data, the national apple output is expected to be 3,736.64 million tons, an increase of 85.93 million tons or 2.35% compared with the 2024 - 2025 production season [2] Viewpoint Summary - As of August 20, 2025, the inventory of apples in the main national production areas was 39.45 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.56 million tons. With the increase in the supply of early - maturing apples, the inventory clearance speed was affected, and the sales speed slowed down slightly compared with the previous week. The old - crop inventory was low, but the overall sales speed slowed down. In the western production area, the supply volume of paper - bagged Gala apples increased, the transaction price showed a slight downward trend, and fruit growers actively disposed of inventory [2]
瑞达期货苹果产业日报-20250821