Dongguan Securities·2025-08-21 09:30Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Market Weight" [1][6]. Core Insights - In July 2025, excavator sales reached 17,138 units, a year-on-year increase of 25.19%, while month-on-month sales decreased by 8.86%. Domestic sales were 7,306 units, up 17.20% year-on-year, and exports were 9,832 units, up 31.87% year-on-year, accounting for 57.37% of total sales, marking a two-year high [3]. - For the first seven months of 2025, cumulative excavator sales totaled 137,658 units, a year-on-year increase of 17.75%, with domestic sales at 72,943 units (up 22.67%) and exports at 64,715 units (up 13.02%) [3]. - Loader sales in July 2025 were 9,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 7.41%, with domestic sales at 4,549 units (up 2.48%) and exports at 4,451 units (up 12.97%) [4]. - The cumulative loader sales for the first seven months of 2025 reached 73,769 units, a year-on-year increase of 12.80% [4]. - The report highlights that domestic demand is supported by multiple factors, including the acceleration of local government bond issuance, which totaled approximately 33,071 billion yuan, up 42.72% year-on-year [5]. - Major projects such as the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project and future railway constructions in Tibet are expected to effectively support long-term domestic demand [5]. - In July 2025, the export trade value of construction machinery was 5.238 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 19.19% [5]. - The report suggests a continued focus on industry leaders such as Sany Heavy Industry, XCMG, Zoomlion, LiuGong, and Hengli Hydraulic [6]. Summary by Sections Excavator Sales - July 2025 excavator sales: 17,138 units, +25.19% YoY, -8.86% MoM [3] - Domestic sales: 7,306 units, +17.20% YoY, -10.20% MoM [3] - Export sales: 9,832 units, +31.87% YoY, -7.84% MoM [3] - Cumulative sales (Jan-Jul 2025): 137,658 units, +17.75% YoY [3] Loader Sales - July 2025 loader sales: 9,000 units, +7.41% YoY, -25.09% MoM [4] - Domestic sales: 4,549 units, +2.48% YoY, -24.37% MoM [4] - Export sales: 4,451 units, +12.97% YoY, -25.08% MoM [4] - Cumulative sales (Jan-Jul 2025): 73,769 units, +12.80% YoY [4] Market Demand and Investment - Local government bond issuance: 33,071 billion yuan, +42.72% YoY [5] - Major projects supporting demand: Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project, Tibet railway construction [5] - July 2025 export trade value: 5.238 billion USD, +19.19% YoY [5] Investment Recommendations - Suggested focus on industry leaders: Sany Heavy Industry, XCMG, Zoomlion, LiuGong, Hengli Hydraulic [6]