Huachuang Securities·2025-08-21 09:44Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (0388.HK) [1] Core Views - The report highlights a significant increase in performance driven by high market activity, with the IPO market returning to the global forefront [1] - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of HKD 14.076 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 32.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of HKD 8.519 billion, up 39.1% year-on-year [1] Revenue Structure - The revenue structure shows a continued rise in market activity, leading to an increase in the proportion of trading and settlement fees. In the first half of 2025, trading and trading system usage fees, settlement and clearing fees, and custody services accounted for 62.0% of total revenue, up 5.9 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The listing fees from the Stock Exchange accounted for 5.8% of total revenue, down 1.0 percentage point year-on-year, while net investment income accounted for 20.4%, down 3.3 percentage points year-on-year [2] Market Activity - The report notes that the stock market's trading activity remains robust, with the IPO fundraising amount returning to the top globally. In the first half of 2025, the total amount raised through IPOs reached HKD 109.4 billion, a staggering increase of 716% year-on-year [4] - The average daily turnover of Hong Kong stocks reached HKD 1.110 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 196%, indicating a significant rise in participation from mainland investors [3] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the total revenue from the cash segment, including trading and settlement fees, reached HKD 5.995 billion, a year-on-year increase of 71% [3] - The report projects that the company will maintain high trading volumes in 2025, benefiting from the favorable conditions in the Hong Kong capital market and the valuation recovery of Chinese stocks [9] Earnings Forecast - The report raises the earnings forecast for the company, estimating EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be HKD 13.72, HKD 15.03, and HKD 16.90 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 32, 29, and 26 times [9] - The target price is set at HKD 494.0, based on a 36 times PE valuation for 2025 [5]