综合晨报-20250821

Group 1: Energy - International oil prices rose overnight, with Brent's October contract up 1.65%. Last week, US EIA crude oil inventories unexpectedly dropped by 6.014 million barrels due to increased exports and decreased imports. The negotiation of the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement has stalled again, and the market's previous pricing of geopolitical easing needs to be revised. It is recommended to continue holding the long strangle strategy of out-of-the-money options for hedging and then enter medium-term short positions after the volatility increases [1]. - The high-sulfur fuel oil shipped from the Middle East to Asia has been increasing continuously. The heavy residue fuel oil inventory in Fujairah has decreased. In August, the total arrival volume increased by 733,000 tons (25.1%) compared with June despite the decline in Russia's shipment volume. The expectation of increased supply of heavy resources from the Middle East still exerts relative pressure on the market [20]. - After the US resumed importing oil from Venezuela, the diversion effect on North Asian resources is expected to gradually emerge. Sinopec's cumulative asphalt production has shown an expanding year-on-year decline due to the increase in deep processing load. As the "Golden September and Silver October" construction peak season approaches, road demand is expected to pick up. The spot price of asphalt is supported by the low year-on-year basis in South China and the center of the spot price in Shandong has moved down. The unilateral price of BU follows the fluctuation of SC but with a smaller amplitude, and the low inventory still supports the price. The market is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the October contract expected to fluctuate narrowly in the range of 3,400 - 3,500 yuan/ton [21]. - The overseas market of liquefied petroleum gas has recently stabilized. Although exports are increasing, the procurement demand in East Asia supported by strong chemical profits provides support. In China, the arrival volume of imports and the release of refineries have increased, and domestic gas is still under pressure. After the decline of naphtha driven by the fall of crude oil, the cost advantage of propane has been continuously weakened. Under the expectation of a subsequent decline in chemical gross profit, the sustainability of the current high operating rate should be concerned. The market is waiting for the realization of bearish expectations. With a high level of warehouse receipts, the top pressure is relatively strong, and the market is expected to fluctuate at a low level [22]. Group 2: Precious Metals - Precious metals rebounded overnight. The minutes of the Fed's July meeting showed that officials generally supported keeping interest rates unchanged, believing that interest rates are not far from the neutral level. Recent progress in Russia-Ukraine related talks has led to insufficient driving force for the continuous upward movement of gold. Precious metals will continue to fluctuate, and investors should patiently wait for the callback to find a layout position [2]. Group 3: Base Metals - LME copper rebounded overnight after a period of oscillating decline, closing slightly below the MA60 moving average. The content of the Fed's minutes basically met market expectations, and most members were still more concerned about the impact of tariffs on inflation. The price of domestic spot copper was reported at 78,770 yuan yesterday. The spread between refined and scrap copper has shrunk to within 1,000 yuan, the operating rate of the scrap copper recycling industry is low, and refined copper consumption has replaced scrap copper. The copper market is still cautiously evaluating the risk of economic growth, and short positions above 79,000 yuan for SHFE copper should be held [3]. - SHFE aluminum continued to oscillate overnight. The downstream operating rate has stabilized, and the peak of inventory accumulation in the off-season may be approaching. The inventory is likely to remain at a relatively low level this year. SHFE aluminum will mainly oscillate in the short term [4]. - Cast aluminum alloy oscillates following SHFE aluminum, and the Baotai spot price remains at 19,900 yuan. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the profit of the aluminum alloy industry is poor. It has certain resilience relative to the aluminum price, and the cross-variety spread between the spot and AL may gradually narrow [5]. - The operating capacity of alumina is at a historical high, and both the industry inventory and the SHFE warehouse receipts have been continuously increasing. The supply surplus is gradually emerging, and the spot indexes in various regions are declining. Alumina is oscillating weakly, and the 3,000 yuan integer mark provides support [6]. - Constrained by overseas smelting capacity, a large amount of imported ore has flowed into China. After the profit of domestic smelters has been repaired, their enthusiasm for increasing production is relatively high. SHFE zinc is generally regarded as facing pressure on the upside during the rebound. The demand continues to show off-season characteristics, but the sharp decline in zinc prices in the short term has led to an improvement in downstream purchasing on dips. Coupled with the traditional peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October", the market still has certain expectations for policy. SHFE zinc has stopped falling for the time being and is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the medium term, the idea of shorting on rebounds should be maintained [7]. - Due to the constraints on overseas smelting capacity, a large amount of imported ore has flowed into China. After the profit of domestic smelters has been repaired, their enthusiasm for increasing production is relatively high. SHFE zinc is generally expected to face pressure during the rebound. The demand continues to show off-season characteristics, but the sharp decline in zinc prices in the short term has led to an improvement in downstream purchasing on dips. Coupled with the traditional peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October", the market still has certain expectations for policies. SHFE zinc has stopped falling for the time being and is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the medium term, the strategy of shorting on rebounds is recommended [7]. - The loss of recycled lead has deepened, and there are more enterprises reducing or suspending production. The SMM refined-scrap lead price is inverted by 25 yuan/ton, and the cost side provides support for the lead price. Whether the weak consumption can form a bottom-up negative feedback to force the upstream raw material prices down is the key to the decline of the lead price. Given the different tax policies in various regions and the still existing difficulty in cross-provincial transportation of scrap batteries, the price of scrap batteries remains resilient. The downside space of SHFE lead is limited, and it is expected to oscillate. As the start of the school season approaches, it is advisable to hold long positions with a stop-loss at 16,600 yuan/ton [8]. - SHFE nickel is in the middle to late stage of the rebound, and investors are advised to actively enter short positions. The social inventory of stainless steel has decreased for six consecutive weeks. However, the downstream end-users' acceptance of high-priced stainless steel products remains poor. In addition, the production schedule of stainless steel in August is increasing, and the supply is expected to increase. There is still some uncertainty in the market. In terms of spot, the premium of Jinchuan nickel is 2,200 yuan, the premium of imported nickel is 350 yuan, and the premium of electrowon nickel is 125 yuan. The price support from the upstream has slightly rebounded recently. In terms of inventory, the nickel-iron inventory remains basically flat at 33,000 tons, the pure nickel inventory has increased by 1,000 tons to 42,000 tons, and the stainless steel inventory has decreased by 20,000 tons to 934,000 tons, but the overall inventory level is still high. Attention should be paid to the signs of the end of de-stocking [9]. - The tin price oscillated overnight. The inventory of LME tin for concentrated delivery has increased slightly, and the 0 - 3 month spot premium has converged to $32. The market divergence in the tin market has increased. On the one hand, the fundamentals are relatively strong. In July, the physical import volume of domestic tin concentrates decreased again, the customs clearance of Burmese tin ore was at a low level, and the domestic tin raw materials were in short supply, and the overseas inventory was low. On the other hand, most base metal varieties are sensitive to long-term demand concerns. Short-term long positions should be held with reference to the MA60 moving average [10]. Group 4: Chemicals - The polycrystalline silicon futures closed slightly lower. The photovoltaic meeting of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has triggered emotional fluctuations. The "market-oriented" clearance orientation has adjusted the expectations of the capacity policy, but it has reiterated that "selling below cost price" is not allowed, so the downside space of the price is limited. The previous rebound high of 53,000 yuan/ton has become a resistance level, and the valuation support at the bottom of the market is about 48,000 yuan/ton. In summary, the market is still in an oscillating adjustment phase where "policy logic prevails over fundamental logic" [12]. - The industrial silicon futures closed slightly lower. The photovoltaic meeting has reiterated the resistance to low-price competition, and the expectation of policy support still exists. The supply and demand in the fundamentals have both increased, but the improvement is limited. The price in Xinjiang has dropped by another 200 yuan/ton to 8,850 yuan/ton (SMM). The market is expected to continue to oscillate. If the policy expectations decline in the future, there will be a certain risk of correction [13]. - The urea market is affected by the news of the third batch of quotas and the relaxation of export country restrictions. The agricultural demand is in the off-season, and the production of compound fertilizers for autumn is mainly focused on high-phosphorus fertilizers, which generally has a limited boost to the urea market. The production enterprises continue to accumulate inventory. There are both potential exports and goods gathering at ports, and the port inventory has decreased slightly. The short-term supply and demand of urea are loose, and the market is greatly affected by emotions and export news [23]. - The methanol inventory at ports has been continuously accumulating. The import arrival volume has slightly decreased, the operating rate of MTO plants in the East China coastal area has been continuously low, and there are no plans for复产 in the short term. The port inventory may break through the historical high at the end of the third quarter. The operating load of methanol plants has slightly increased, and the downstream maintains rigid demand procurement. The inventory of production enterprises has increased. The inland market is relatively stronger than the port market. The short-term supply and demand weakness in the coastal area will continue. Attention should be paid to the situation of overseas plants and market emotions [24]. - The price of straight-run benzene fluctuated significantly yesterday due to news stimulation and closed with a negative line at night. Recently, the inventory at the pure benzene port has slightly decreased, the import pressure has been relieved, and there is an expectation of seasonal improvement in supply and demand in the third quarter due to domestic maintenance and increased downstream demand. The supply and demand may face pressure in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to conduct band trading on the monthly spread [25]. - The moving average system of the main contract of styrene futures is intertwined, and the market continues to consolidate. Fundamentally, the cost side provides bottom support for styrene, but there is a lack of unilateral driving force. The plants are operating stably, and the market supply is sufficient. The production of downstream three-S products is expected to continue to increase slightly, and they maintain purchasing on dips, but the boost is limited [26]. - The supply of propylene is relatively abundant, but the downstream follow-up is insufficient. The differentiation of enterprise shipments has intensified, and the offers are mainly slightly discounted. High-end transactions are relatively limited. The supply pressure of polyethylene still exists, and enterprises are actively reducing inventory and are cautious about price increases. The demand side is slowly following up, providing limited support to the market. The supply side of polypropylene still has support. Although there are new plants about to be put into operation, their short-term impact on the market is limited. The recovery of downstream demand is slow, and the lack of terminal orders has led to the downstream enterprises maintaining low raw material inventory. The peak-season stocking has not yet started, and the market trading atmosphere is light [27]. - PVC is operating weakly. India has issued a final anti-dumping duty ruling on imported PVC, with a significant increase for mainland China, increasing the export pressure. Although there are more maintenance activities, the overall supply remains at a high level. The overall demand is still insufficient, and the social inventory has been continuously increasing since July. The profit of the chlor-alkali integration is fair, and the cost support is not obvious. With poor demand and high production, the futures price is expected to oscillate weakly. Caustic soda is operating strongly. The non-aluminum downstream in Shandong is taking delivery well, and the purchasing enthusiasm is high. The inventory continues to decrease. A factory in Shandong has started production, and the operating load has increased. The demand from the alumina industry provides fair support. The recent restocking sentiment of the non-aluminum downstream has increased. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of restocking. Supported by short-term restocking demand, the futures price is expected to oscillate strongly. In the long term, the supply pressure remains, and the expected increase in price is limited [28]. - The PX and PTA markets were relatively strong yesterday due to news influence and closed with doji lines at night. The short-term market supply is stable, and there are signs of improvement in the weaving industry, with an expected increase in demand. The supply and demand of PX are expected to improve in the third quarter, and the improvement in valuation will be an important upward driving force for the industrial chain. Attention should be paid to the direction of oil prices and the rhythm of demand recovery [29]. - The profit of the ethylene glycol industry is poor. If the industry resolves the problem of petrochemical overcapacity through maintenance in the future, there is a large space for the recovery of the profit of petroleum-based ethylene glycol. However, the impact of news is short-term. Later, attention should be paid to the implementation of policies. Recently, the port inventory has been accumulating, the industry operating rate has increased, and there are signs of improvement in demand. The ethylene glycol market is facing both long and short factors. In the medium term, attention should be paid to the policies and the rhythm of the increase in peak-season demand [30]. - The supply and demand of short fibers are stable, and the market is mainly driven by cost. The new production capacity of short fibers this year is limited, and the increase in peak-season demand will boost the industry's expectations. In the medium term, a long position is recommended, and a positive spread trading strategy on the monthly spread can be considered. The processing margin of bottle chips is oscillating at a low level. Overcapacity is a long-term pressure, which will limit the recovery space of the processing margin of bottle chips. Attention should be paid to the implementation of policies in the petrochemical industry [31]. Group 5: Building Materials - The glass market continues to decline. The weak reality persists, and the spot price continues to decline and inventory accumulates. Due to the military parade in September, the processing operations in the Shahe area have been affected. Recently, the production capacity has not fluctuated much, and the daily melting volume remains at a relatively high level of 159,600 tons. The processing orders have improved month-on-month but are still weak year-on-year. Although the market is trading on the weak reality, the cost has increased, and it is expected that the price will not break through the previous low [32]. - The soda ash market has fallen sharply. The industry continues to accumulate inventory, and the inventory at the upstream, midstream, and downstream of the industrial chain is all high. The weak reality pattern persists. Yuanxing has future production plans, and the supply shows an increasing trend. The fundamentals of the photovoltaic industry have recently improved, the price has rebounded, and some blocked kilns have been reopened, leading to a slight increase in the rigid demand for heavy soda ash. In the long term, the pattern of oversupply of soda ash remains unchanged, and the futures price is under pressure at high levels [34]. Group 6: Agricultural Products - The latest good-to-excellent rate of US soybeans is 68%, higher than the market expectation of 67%, and it is still at a historically high level for the same period. In the next two weeks, the temperature in the main US soybean-producing areas will be generally normal, but the lack of rain will gradually become more serious, posing challenges to the growth of new-season crops. In China, the spot price of soybean meal has increased significantly recently, and the market is continuously concerned about the supply of imported soybeans in the fourth quarter. Currently, the sales progress of Brazilian soybeans has exceeded 80%, and the premium is high. Given the unclear situation of Sino-US trade, there are still uncertainties in the far-month supply. The oil mill crushing rate in China is stable, and the inventory reduction of soybean meal is limited. Currently, positive factors are gradually emerging. After the Sino-US-Swedish talks, although the mutual addition of tariffs has been postponed, the tariff issue still exists. The soybean meal market is cautiously bullish, and investors should wait for the callback to enter the market [35]. - The US crop inspection shows that the number of soybean pods in Nebraska has increased year-on-year, reaching the highest level since 2003. The number of soybean pods in Indiana has slightly decreased year-on-year but is still higher than the average of the past three years. The American Soybean Association issued a statement this week strongly urging the Trump administration to reach an agreement to reopen the Chinese market, which is crucial for US soybeans. The market expects that the US Environmental Protection Agency will soon make a key decision on the biofuel exemption for refineries. The Trump administration granted exemptions to small refineries in the previous term, and the market is worried that the exemptions will occur again, which has suppressed the price of US soybean oil. The domestic soybean and palm oil markets showed a pattern of reducing positions and correcting. In the short term, attention should be paid to the movement of funds and the guidance of relevant policies. In the medium term, overseas palm oil is in a production reduction cycle. In the long term, the long-term development trends of biodiesel in the US and Indonesia still exist. It is advisable to consider buying soybean and palm oil on dips, but pay attention to the risk of large price fluctuations after reaching high levels [36]. - The overseas rapeseed market fluctuated little overnight. As new-season crops will be listed one after another and there are few variables