Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - Coke: On August 21, the main coke contract closed at 1664 yuan/ton, down 0.95% intraday. The position of the main contract was 38,300 lots, a decrease of 808 lots from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the latest quoted price of the first-grade wet quenching coke flat price index at Rizhao Port is 1520 yuan/ton, up 3.40% week-on-week; the ex-warehouse price of the first-grade wet quenching coke at Qingdao Port is 1470 yuan/ton, down 0.68% week-on-week. Since August, there have been continuous disturbances in the news on the supply side of coking coal, the raw material for coke. Although the actual domestic coking coal supply has not been significantly affected so far, market expectations have improved. After a periodic adjustment, coke futures prices may still show a characteristic of being easy to rise and hard to fall, with the main bearish risk being that the reduction in coking coal supply falls short of expectations [5][33]. - Coking Coal: On August 21, the main coking coal contract closed at 1147 points, down 1.50% intraday. The position of the main contract was 699,300 lots, an increase of 634 lots from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the latest quoted price of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port is 1190 yuan/ton, flat week-on-week. Before the 9.3 parade, coking plants and steel mills around Beijing face production restriction pressure, and the short-term demand for coking coal is under pressure. Market differences between bulls and bears have increased, and coking coal futures have started to consolidate at high levels. However, considering the subsequent mild and orderly capacity optimization and industrial upgrading, the pattern of oversupply of coking coal is expected to gradually ease, and the market supply-demand relationship will be promoted to a more balanced direction. In general, although there is a short-term adjustment, in the medium and long term, the coking coal price center still has an upward basis, with the main risk point being that the policy implementation strength falls short of expectations [6][34]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry News - In July 2025, the total social electricity consumption was 1022.6 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 8.6%. The electricity consumption of the primary industry was 1.7 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 20.2%; the electricity consumption of the secondary industry was 593.6 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 4.7%; the electricity consumption of the tertiary industry was 208.1 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 10.7%; the electricity consumption of urban and rural residents was 203.9 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 18.0% [8]. - On August 21, the price of coking coal in the Linfen Anze market remained stable. The ex-factory price of low-sulfur main coking coal with A9, S0.5, V20, and G85 was 1470 yuan/ton, including tax in cash [9]. Spot Market | Variety | Current Value | Week-on-Week Change | Month-on-Month Change | Year-on-Year Change | Year-on-Year Change Compared to the Same Period | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke (Rizhao Port First-Grade Flat Price) | 1520 yuan/ton | +3.40% | +7.04% | -10.06% | -15.08% | | Coke (Qingdao Port First-Grade Ex-warehouse Price) | 1470 yuan/ton | -0.68% | +5.00% | -9.26% | -14.53% | | Coking Coal (Ganqimaodu Port Mongolian Coal) | 1190 yuan/ton | 0.00% | +3.48% | +0.85% | -15.60% | | Coking Coal (Australian Coal at Jingtang Port) | 1530 yuan/ton | -1.92% | +2.68% | +2.68% | -12.57% | | Coking Coal (Shanxi Coal at Jingtang Port) | 1630 yuan/ton | 0.00% | -1.21% | +6.54% | -4.12% | [10] Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Change Rate | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Position | Position Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | - | 1664.0 yuan/ton | -0.95% | 1694.5 yuan/ton | 1657.0 yuan/ton | 22,209 lots | -8,512 lots | 38,252 lots | -808 lots | | Coking Coal | - | 1147.0 points | -1.50% | 1178.0 points | 1143.0 points | 1,364,024 lots | -610,454 lots | 699,348 lots | 634 lots | [14] Relevant Charts - Coke Inventory: Charts show the inventory of 230 independent coking plants, 247 steel mill coking plants, port coke, and total coke inventory on a weekly basis from 2019 - 2025 [15][16][19]. - Coking Coal Inventory: Charts show the inventory of mine-mouth coking coal, port coking coal, 247 sample steel mills, and all-sample independent coking plants on a weekly basis from 2019 - 2025 [20][23][30]. - Other Charts: Include domestic steel mill production, Shanghai terminal wire rod procurement volume, coal washing plant production, and coking plant operation conditions [27][29][31]. Market Outlook - Coke: The situation is similar to the core view, with the price expected to be easy to rise and hard to fall after adjustment, mainly due to the improvement of market expectations for coking coal supply and the cooperation of the coal industry association and coal enterprises with anti-involution policies [33]. - Coking Coal: In the short term, it is under pressure due to production restrictions around Beijing, but in the medium and long term, the price center has an upward basis with the easing of the oversupply pattern through capacity optimization and industrial upgrading [34].
煤焦日报：多空交织，煤焦高位震荡-20250821
Bao Cheng Qi Huo·2025-08-21 10:19