Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-21 10:26Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Alumina: The alumina market may experience a slight increase in supply and stable demand, with loose spot supplies and a possible slight accumulation of inventory. It is recommended to trade with a light position in a range - bound manner [2]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: The electrolytic aluminum market is in a situation of relatively stable supply and temporarily weak demand, with a slight accumulation of industrial inventory and a decline in the molten - aluminum ratio. Option market sentiment is bullish. Light - position range - bound trading is advised [2]. - Casting Aluminum Alloy: The casting aluminum alloy market is in a stage where supply is slightly reduced and demand is weakening in the off - season, with continuous accumulation of industrial inventory. Light - position range - bound trading is recommended [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Prices and Spreads: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract is 20,590 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract is 3,124 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan; the casting aluminum alloy main contract closing price is 20,125 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2]. - Open Interest: The open interest of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract is 233,902 lots, up 5,874 lots; the open interest of the alumina main contract is 185,979 lots, up 9,176 lots; the open interest of the casting aluminum alloy main contract is 7,973 lots, up 84 lots [2]. - Inventory: LME aluminum inventory is 479,525 tons, down 2,571 tons; Shanghai Aluminum SHFE inventory is 120,653 tons, up 7,039 tons; alumina total inventory is 88,412 tons, up 2,940 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Prices: The average price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum is 20,450 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan; the average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide is 20,680 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 3,205 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Basis: The basis of casting aluminum alloy is 325 yuan/ton, down 385 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum is 90 yuan/ton, up 105 yuan; the basis of alumina is 81 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production and Demand: Alumina production is 756.49 million tons, down 18.44 million tons; the demand for alumina in the electrolytic aluminum part is 722.07 million tons, up 25.88 million tons; the supply - demand balance of alumina is 16.32 million tons, down 10.82 million tons [2]. - Imports and Exports: China's imports of aluminum scrap and fragments are 160,494.61 tons, up 4,900.05 tons; exports are 79.39 tons, up 15.06 tons; alumina exports are 23 million tons, up 6 million tons; imports are 12.59 million tons, up 2.47 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Production and Capacity: The total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum is 4,523.20 million tons, up 2.50 million tons; the production of aluminum products is 548.37 million tons, down 39 million tons; the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 61.89 million tons, up 0.29 million tons [2]. - Imports and Exports: The import of primary aluminum is 248,198.71 tons, up 55,884.22 tons; the export is 40,987.71 tons, up 21,416.99 tons; the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products is 54 million tons, up 5 million tons; the export of aluminum alloy is 2.49 million tons, down 0.09 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - Production: The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots' total built - in capacity is 126 million tons, down 1.10 million tons; the production of aluminum alloy is 153.60 million tons, down 13.30 million tons; the production of automobiles is 251.02 million vehicles, down 29.84 million vehicles [2]. - Index: The National Real Estate Climate Index is 93.34, down 0.25 [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - Volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum is 5.72%, up 0.11%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 8.26%, down 0.05%; the implied volatility of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract at - the - money is 9.18%, up 0.0032% [2]. - Put - Call Ratio: The put - call ratio of Shanghai Aluminum options is 1.10, up 0.0014 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Policy and Economy: The Fed's July meeting minutes show that most officials support keeping interest rates unchanged, and there are differences in views on inflation and employment risks; China's new LPR remains unchanged for three consecutive months [2]. - Projects: President Xi Jinping emphasizes promoting major projects in Tibet such as the Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project and the Sichuan - Tibet Railway [2]. 3.8 Alumina View Summary - Market Performance: The alumina main contract fluctuates weakly, with increasing open interest, spot premium, and strengthening basis [2]. - Fundamentals: Supply may increase due to high - level operation of production capacity and positive production sentiment; demand is stable as electrolytic aluminum capacity grows slightly and smelters' profits are good [2]. - Technical Analysis: The 60 - minute MACD shows double lines below the 0 - axis with a shrinking red bar [2]. - Operation Suggestion: Trade with a light position in a range - bound manner and control trading risks [2]. 3.9 Electrolytic Aluminum View Summary - Market Performance: The Shanghai Aluminum main contract rises first and then falls, with increasing open interest, spot premium, and strengthening basis [2]. - Fundamentals: Supply is relatively stable as in - production capacity and operating rate are high and new capacity is limited; demand is weakening due to the off - season and trade policies [2]. - Technical Analysis: The 60 - minute MACD shows double lines near the 0 - axis with a shrinking red bar [2]. - Operation Suggestion: Trade with a light position in a range - bound manner and control trading risks [2]. 3.10 Casting Aluminum Alloy View Summary - Market Performance: The casting aluminum alloy main contract rises first and then falls, with increasing open interest, spot premium, and weakening basis [2]. - Fundamentals: Supply may be slightly reduced due to high raw material costs and tight supply; demand is weakening in the off - season with cautious purchasing by downstream enterprises [2]. - Technical Analysis: The 60 - minute MACD shows double lines above the 0 - axis with a shrinking red bar [2]. - Operation Suggestion: Trade with a light position in a range - bound manner and control trading risks [2].