山金期货贵金属策略报告-20250821

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term trade agreements are reached in batches, the Russia - Ukraine talks start, the risk - aversion demand declines, the risk of stagflation in the US economy increases, employment weakens, inflation is moderate, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation rebounds. It is expected that precious metals will be weakly volatile in the short term, highly volatile in the medium term, and rise step - by - step in the long term [1] - The gold price trend is the anchor of the silver price. In terms of funds, CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have slightly reduced their positions. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver has slightly increased [5] Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Gold - Market Performance: Today, precious metals were weakly volatile. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed up 0.30%, and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed up 0.63% [1] - Core Logic: Short - term trade agreements, Russia - Ukraine talks, and reduced risk - aversion demand; increased stagflation risk in the US economy, weakening employment, moderate inflation, and a rebound in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation [1] - Attribute Analysis - Risk - aversion: The meeting between US and Russian leaders was considered "productive", and the US - China tariff truce was extended by 90 days [1] - Monetary: Only two Fed policymakers supported an interest - rate cut in July. US retail sales and wholesale prices in July increased strongly. The market's expectation of a Fed interest - rate cut in September has soared from about 40% to over 80%, and the expected number of interest - rate cuts this year has risen from 1 to 2 - 3 times [1] - Commodity: The CRB commodity index's rebound was under pressure, and the strong RMB suppressed domestic prices [1] - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits [2] 2. Silver - Price Anchor: The gold price trend is the anchor of the silver price [5] - Fund and Inventory: CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have slightly reduced their positions, and the recent visible inventory of silver has slightly increased [5] - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits [6] 3. Fundamental Key Data - Fed - related Data: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate, the discount rate, and the reserve balance interest rate have all decreased by 0.25%. The Fed's total assets are 66946.22 billion US dollars, with a slight increase [8] - Key Indicators: The 10 - year US Treasury real yield, the US dollar index, and other indicators have changed to varying degrees. For example, the 10 - year US Treasury real yield decreased by 1.15% compared with the previous day [8] - US Economic Data: In terms of inflation, employment, consumption, and other aspects, there are different degrees of changes. For example, the CPI year - on - year is 2.70%, and the unemployment rate is 4.20% [8][9] - Central Bank Gold Reserves: China's central bank gold reserves are 2300.41 tons, with a slight increase; the US is 8133.46 tons, unchanged [9] - Other Indicators: The geopolitical risk index, VIX index, CRB commodity index, etc. have also changed [9] 4. Fed's Latest Interest - Rate Expectation - According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of different interest - rate ranges at different meeting dates from September 2025 to December 2026 is provided. For example, the probability of an interest - rate range of 300 - 325 at the September 17, 2025 meeting is 81.2% [11]