Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-08-21 11:06Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][5]. Core Insights - The company reported its mid-year performance for 2025, which met expectations, with a revenue of RMB 6.4 billion in Q2, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.5% [4]. - The domestic segment generated RMB 5.1 billion in revenue, up 5.7% year-on-year, exceeding previous guidance [4]. - The company continues to benefit from its asset-light strategy, with management and franchise income growing by 22.8% to RMB 2.9 billion [4]. - The company has accelerated its asset-light transformation in overseas markets, with a significant improvement in operational data for its DH hotels [4]. Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: RMB 21,882 million - 2024: RMB 23,891 million - 2025E: RMB 25,603 million - 2026E: RMB 26,794 million - 2027E: RMB 28,215 million - The expected net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be: - 2025E: RMB 4,780 million - 2026E: RMB 5,727 million - 2027E: RMB 6,234 million - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be RMB 1.54 in 2025E, RMB 1.84 in 2026E, and RMB 2.01 in 2027E [4][5]. Operational Efficiency - The company has 12,137 hotels in operation globally, with a total of 1,184,915 rooms as of Q2 2025 [4]. - The revenue from management and franchise hotels accounted for 45.4% of total revenue in H1 2025, up from 38.5% in the same period last year [4]. - The operating profit margin improved by 2.2 percentage points to 27.8% in Q2 2025, with operating profit increasing by 13.7% to RMB 1.8 billion [4]. Market Performance - The company’s domestic RevPAR (Revenue per Available Room) was RMB 235, down 3.7% year-on-year, while the overseas DH hotels saw a RevPAR of €88, up 7.3% year-on-year [4]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of approximately $250 million for H1 2025, reflecting confidence in future cash flows and commitment to shareholder returns [4].