天山股份（000877）：2025 年中报点评：水泥盈利回升，西部基建需求增强

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a target price of 8.92 CNY, while the current price is 5.91 CNY [6][13]. Core Insights - The company reported its 2025 mid-year results, which met expectations. The significant recovery in cement profitability is attributed to peak pricing and a decline in coal prices. Future demand for cement is expected to rise with the commencement of major infrastructure projects in the western region [2][13]. - The company achieved a revenue of 35.98 billion CNY in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 9.4%, but the net profit attributable to the parent company improved to a loss of 0.92 billion CNY, showing a reduction in losses [13]. - The company’s cement and clinker sales volume for the first half of 2025 was 90.52 million tons, a year-on-year decline of 14.6%, with the second quarter sales volume at 52.82 million tons, down 14.09% year-on-year [13]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 was 107.38 billion CNY, with projections of 86.99 billion CNY for 2024 and 84.85 billion CNY for 2025, indicating a decline of 19.0% in 2023 and a further decrease of 2.5% in 2025 [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.965 billion CNY in 2023, with a projected recovery to 1.969 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a significant turnaround from a loss of 0.598 billion CNY in 2024 [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.28 CNY for 2025, increasing to 0.35 CNY in 2026 and 0.41 CNY in 2027 [4][13]. Industry Context - The cement industry is experiencing a recovery in profitability due to peak pricing strategies and lower coal costs, which have improved gross margins. The industry is also benefiting from increased infrastructure spending in the western regions of China [13]. - The company is positioned well within the industry, executing peak production cuts more effectively than its peers, which has helped stabilize its performance amid declining sales volumes [13].