银行估值研究系列之一：为何银行长期破净？

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the Market (Maintained Rating) [5] Core Insights - The banking sector has been persistently trading below book value since 2018, with a significant valuation gap compared to other sectors. As of July 12, 2024, the dividend yield reached 7.26%, the highest in a decade, exceeding the 10Y government bond yield by 5.00 percentage points [12][8]. - As of August 18, 2025, the CITIC secondary banking sector saw a valuation increase of 32.53% over the past year, with a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.72 and a return on equity (ROE) of 8.92%. However, this remains below the overall PB-ROE trend of other secondary sectors [12][8]. - The report identifies three main reasons for the long-term trading below book value: asset quality exposure risks, declining profitability, and asset expansion rates significantly outpacing other industries, which depresses valuations [2][16]. Summary by Sections 1. Long-term Trading Below Book Value - The banking sector has been trading below book value for seven consecutive years since March 23, 2018. Despite multiple rounds of valuation recovery, it remains significantly lower than other sectors in terms of PB-ROE valuation logic [12][8]. 2. Main Reasons for Trading Below Book Value 2.1 Asset Quality Exposure Risks - Historical data shows that the growth rate of non-performing loans (NPLs) and credit scale growth have experienced "inversion" periods, indicating that NPL growth outpaced credit growth. This has led to market concerns about the actual value of bank assets [3][17]. 2.2 Declining Profitability - The report suggests that the current ROE corresponds to a theoretical PB of approximately 0.63. To return to a PB of 1, the ROE would need to reach about 14.15% [39][9]. 2.3 High Growth Rate of Book Value - The growth rate of banks' book value has significantly outpaced other sectors, which, under current operational pressures, has a dampening effect on the PB valuation denominator [9][16]. 3. Future Outlook - There is potential for marginal improvement in the fundamentals of bank stocks this year, which could theoretically support further valuation recovery [10][12].