国投期货能源日报-20250821

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆★, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term equilibrium state with poor operability [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆, showing a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆, indicating a short - term equilibrium state with poor operability [1] - LPG: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term equilibrium state with poor operability [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various energy products including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, and LPG, and provides corresponding investment suggestions and market trend judgments based on factors such as supply, demand, inventory, and price movements [2][3][4][5] Summary by Product Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices rose, with the SC10 contract up 1.85% intraday. Last week, US EIA crude oil inventories decreased by 601,4000 barrels more than expected due to increased exports and decreased imports. The Russia - Ukraine peace negotiation has stalled, and the market's previous pricing of geopolitical easing needs to be revised. It is recommended to hold out - of - the - money option straddles for hedging and then enter medium - term short positions after the volatility increases [2] Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - Both high - and low - sulfur fuel oils rose driven by the rebound in crude oil. The shipment of high - sulfur fuel oil from the Middle East to Asia has been increasing, and the heavy residue fuel oil inventory in Fujairah has decreased. In August, the total arrival volume increased by 733,000 tons (25.1%) compared to June. The expected increase in heavy - resource supply from the Middle East still suppresses the market. The FU warehouse receipts decreased by 7000 tons to 73,710 tons, and the high - low sulfur spread narrowed slightly at the close [3] Asphalt - Since mid - August, the diversion effect of US imports of Venezuelan oil on North Asian resources has increased. Sinopec's increase in deep - processing load has led to an expanding year - on - year decline in cumulative asphalt production. The shipment volume of sample refineries in August increased by 8% year - on - year, breaking the growth bottleneck from June to July. Leading indicators such as the issuance of special bonds for toll roads and the cumulative domestic sales of road rollers are showing positive year - on - year trends, indicating potential asphalt demand. The futures are driven by the strengthening of crude oil, with the basis declining. The market is mainly in a volatile state, and the 10 - contract is expected to fluctuate narrowly between 3400 - 3500 yuan/ton [4] LPG - The overseas market has recently stabilized. Although exports are increasing, the procurement demand in East Asia provides support due to strong chemical profits. In China, the import arrival volume and refinery releases have increased, and domestic gas is still under pressure. After the decline in naphtha driven by the fall in crude oil, the cost advantage of propane has been continuously weakened. Under the expectation of a subsequent decline in chemical gross profit, the sustainability of the current high operating rate should be monitored. The market is waiting for the implementation of bearish expectations. With a high level of warehouse receipts, the top pressure is relatively strong, and the high - basis pattern can continue, with the market mainly in a low - level volatile state [5]