国投期货农产品日报-20250821

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish/Short-term Bullish: Soybean Meal, Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Corn, Live Pigs, Eggs (★☆☆), indicating a bias towards a rising or falling trend with drivers for price movement but limited trading opportunities on the market [1]. - Balanced/Neutral: Soybean, Soybean Oil, Palm Oil (☆☆☆), suggesting short - term supply - demand balance and poor market operability, advising to wait and see [1]. Core Viewpoints - The prices of various agricultural products are affected by multiple factors such as supply - demand relationships, weather, policies, and international trade situations. Different products show different trends and investment opportunities [2][3][4][5][6][7][8]. Summary by Product Soybean - The price of domestic soybean futures is weak due to increased supply from auctions and weak demand. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans is rising. Attention should be paid to weather, policies, and the performance of imported soybeans [2]. Soybean & Soybean Meal - In the next two weeks, low temperature and less rain in the US soybean - producing areas pose challenges to new - season crops. The global oil market's strength may boost soybean crushing. In China, the supply in Q4 and Q1 next year is affected by US tariff policies, with a possible supply gap in Q1 next year. The medium - long - term outlook for soybean meal is cautiously bullish [3]. Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Domestic soybean and palm oil prices are in a correction. Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased in June. The market is concerned about the US EPA's decision on biofuel exemptions, which has pressured US soybean oil prices. In the medium - term, overseas palm oil is in a production - reduction cycle [4]. Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The supply side of the overseas rapeseed market is stabilizing, and the focus is shifting to the demand side. China's imports of Australian rapeseed are a hot topic. The supply of rapeseed is likely to be tight in Q4, and the futures price is expected to rise [5]. Corn - Cofco will continue to auction imported corn. The previous auctions had a low transaction rate. The supply of corn in Shandong is relatively sufficient. New - season Xinjiang corn is affecting market expectations. Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom [6]. Live Pigs - Live pig futures are in a weak oscillation. The supply in the second half of the year is high, and the price is expected to decline. Policy may support the price at a certain level. It is recommended that the industry conduct hedging when the price is high [7]. Eggs - Egg futures have reached a new low. The spot price is weak, and the futures price is still at a premium. The far - month contracts for the first half of next year are strong. Attention should be paid to the spot price and capacity reduction [8].