黑色金属日报-20250821

Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Hot - rolled coil: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current disk, and it's advisable to wait and see [1] - Iron ore: ★★★, showing a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Coke: ☆☆☆, meaning a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current disk, and it's advisable to wait and see [1] - Coking coal: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias, with a driving force for the upward trend but poor operability on the disk [1] - Silicon manganese: ☆☆☆, indicating a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current disk, and it's advisable to wait and see [1] - Silicon iron: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current disk, and it's advisable to wait and see [1] Core Views - The steel market is under pressure in the short - term due to weak downstream demand, high iron - water levels, and market sentiment changes. The iron ore market will face increased downward pressure when iron - water production cuts turn from expectation to reality. The coke and coking coal markets are affected by policies and have large price fluctuations. The silicon manganese and silicon iron markets are also influenced by policies, with silicon iron following the trend of silicon manganese [2][3][4] Summary by Product Steel - The steel futures market is in a weak and volatile state. Thread steel shows rising demand but falling production and rising inventory. Hot - rolled coil has improving demand, rising production, and accumulating inventory. The overall inventory level is low, and attention should be paid to the production - restriction intensity near the military parade. Downstream demand is weak, and the market is under short - term pressure [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market is in a strong and volatile state. Supply is strong with potential for seasonal growth, and port inventory is rising. Demand is supported by high iron - water levels in the short - term, but there are expectations of production cuts around the military parade. The downward pressure on the disk increases when production cuts become a reality [3] Coke - The coke futures market is in a downward - oscillating state. There are expectations of production restrictions in East China due to approaching events. The seventh price increase has improved coking profits and slightly increased daily production. Inventory is decreasing, and the price is affected by policies with large short - term fluctuations [4] Coking Coal - The coking coal futures market is in a downward - oscillating state. Coal mine production is increasing, and the spot auction market has a slightly higher non - transaction rate. Terminal inventory is flat, and production - end inventory has a slight increase. The price is affected by policies and is likely to fluctuate widely [6] Silicon Manganese - The silicon manganese futures market is in a weak and volatile state. Attention should be paid to the shipping situation of South32's Australian mines. Demand is supported by high iron - water production. Production is increasing, and inventory has not accumulated. Manganese ore prices have a slight decline, and the price has limited downward space. In the long - term, manganese ore is expected to accumulate inventory [7] Silicon Iron - The silicon iron futures market is in a weak and volatile state. Iron - water production is slightly decreasing but remains above 240. Export demand is stable at around 30,000 tons. Supply is increasing significantly, and inventory is slightly decreasing. The price is affected by policies and follows the trend of silicon manganese [8]