CCSC(SH:601375) Zhongyuan Securities·2025-08-21 12:40Economic Overview - In July 2025, the national industrial added value increased by 5.7% year-on-year, a decline of 1.1 percentage points from the previous month[11] - The total retail sales of social consumer goods reached 38,780 billion yuan, growing by 3.7% year-on-year, with a decrease of 1.1 percentage points compared to June[15] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) from January to July totaled 288,229 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.6%, marking a continuous decline for four months[18] Henan Province Economic Performance - In July 2025, Henan's industrial added value grew by 8.8% year-on-year, exceeding the national average by 3.1 percentage points[25] - The total retail sales of social consumer goods in Henan reached 212.53 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 4.8%, surpassing the national average by 1.1 percentage points[26] - Fixed asset investment in Henan from January to July increased by 5.6% year-on-year, higher than the national average by 4.0 percentage points[29] Regional Economic Contributions - Zhengzhou contributed 7,329.3 billion yuan, accounting for 23.1% of Henan's total economic output, with Luoyang and Nanyang following at 2,925.3 billion yuan (9.2%) and 2,389.83 billion yuan (7.5%) respectively[34] - Six cities in Henan achieved GDP growth rates exceeding the provincial target of 5.7%, with the highest growth in Leihe and Shangqiu at 7.3% and 7.0% respectively[34] Investment and Consumption Trends - The investment in real estate development in Henan decreased by 8.0% year-on-year from January to July, indicating a continued decline in the real estate market[22] - Consumer demand showed signs of recovery with increased spending in food and beverage categories, while "old-for-new" consumption policies led to a decline in certain retail categories[16][26] Risks and Challenges - Potential risks include slower-than-expected policy implementation affecting economic recovery, insufficient domestic demand, and escalating trade tensions[4][38]